An econometric analysis of emission allowance prices
Knowledge of the statistical distribution of the prices of emission allowances, and their forecastability, are crucial in constructing, among other things, purchasing and risk management strategies in the emissions-constrained markets. This paper analyzes the two emission permits markets, CO2 in Europe, and SO2 in the US, and investigates a model for dealing with the unique stylized facts of this type of data. Its effectiveness in terms of model fit and out-of-sample value-at-risk-forecasting, as compared to models commonly used in risk-forecasting contexts, is demonstrated.
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- Giot, Pierre & Laurent, Sebastien, 2004.
"Modelling daily Value-at-Risk using realized volatility and ARCH type models,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
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- GIOT, Pierre & LAURENT, Sébastien, "undated". "Modelling daily Value-at-Risk using realized volatility and ARCH type models," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1708, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Giot Pierre & Laurent Sebastien, 2001. "Modelling daily value-at-risk using realized volatility and arch type models," Research Memorandum 014, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
- Pierre Giot & Sébastien Laurent, 2002. "Modelling Daily Value-at-Risk Using Realized Volatility and ARCH Type Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 52, Society for Computational Economics.
- Markus Haas, 2004. "Mixed Normal Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(2), pages 211-250.
- Haas, Markus & Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S., 2002. "Mixed normal conditional heteroskedasticity," CFS Working Paper Series 2002/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S. & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2002. "Stationarity of stable power-GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 97-107, January.
- Kirchler, Michael & Huber, Jurgen, 2007. "Fat tails and volatility clustering in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1844-1874, June.
- Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, "undated". "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: A Micro-Simulation of Interacting Agents," Discussion Paper Serie B 437, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
- Emese Lazar & Carol Alexander, 2006. "Normal mixture GARCH(1,1): applications to exchange rate modelling," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 307-336.
- Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S., 2003. "Prediction of Financial Downside-Risk with Heavy-Tailed Conditional Distributions," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/04, Center for Financial Studies (CFS). Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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