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Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices

  • Seifert, Jan
  • Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese
  • Wagner, Michael
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    CO2 emission allowances are traded nowadays over the counter (OTC) and on exchanges across the European Union (EU). It thus becomes increasingly important for traders of these emission certificates to have a valid CO2 spot price model to value potential derivatives. In addition, CO2-emitting companies require an adequate CO2 spot price model in order to better assess their production costs and support emissions-related investment decisions. However, sufficient price history is still lacking for the European Union emission trading scheme (EU ETS). We therefore present a tractable stochastic equilibrium model reflecting stylized features of the EU ETS and analyze the resulting CO2 spot price dynamics. Our main findings are that CO2 prices do not have to follow any seasonal patterns, discounted prices should possess the martingale property, and an adequate CO2 price process should exhibit a time- and price-dependent volatility structure. A brief empirical examination regarding market efficiency complements our analysis.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095-0696(08)00051-X
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.

    Volume (Year): 56 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 2 (September)
    Pages: 180-194

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:56:y:2008:i:2:p:180-194
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622870

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    1. Schennach, Susanne M., 2000. "The Economics of Pollution Permit Banking in the Context of Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 189-210, November.
    2. Rubin, Jonathan D., 1996. "A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 269-286, November.
    3. Godby, Robert W. & Mestelman, Stuart & Muller, R. Andrew & Welland, J. Douglas, 1997. "Emissions Trading with Shares and Coupons when Control over Discharges Is Uncertain," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 359-381, March.
    4. Svendsen, Gert Tinggaard & Vesterdal, Morten, 2002. "CO2 trade and market power in the EU electricity sector," Working Papers 02-11, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics.
    5. Cronshaw, Mark B & Brown-Kruse, Jamie, 1996. "Regulated Firms in Pollution Permit Markets with Banking," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 179-189, March.
    6. Joskow, Paul L & Schmalensee, Richard & Bailey, Elizabeth M, 1998. "The Market for Sulfur Dioxide Emissions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 669-685, September.
    7. G√ľnter Franke, 2005. "What Can We Expect From the New Trade of C02-Allowances?," CoFE Discussion Paper 05-11, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
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