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On the Stochastic Properties of Carbon Futures Prices

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  • Julien Chevallier
  • Benoît Sévi

Abstract

Pricing carbon is a central concern in environmental economics, due to the worldwide importance of emissions trading schemes to regulate pollution. This paper documents the presence of small and large jumps in the stochastic process of the CO $$_2$$ 2 futures price. The large jumps have a discrete origin, i.e. they can arise from various demand factors or institutional decisions on the tradable permits market. Contrary to the existing literature, we show that the stochastic process of carbon futures prices does not contain a continuous component (Brownian motion). The results are derived by using high-frequency data in the activity signature function framework (Todorov and Tauchen in J Econom 154:125–138, 2010 ; Todorov and Tauchen in J Bus Econ Stat 29:356–371, 2011 ). The implication is that the carbon futures price should be modeled as an appropriately sampled, centered Lévy or Poisson process. The pure-jump behavior of the carbon price might be explained by the lower volume of trades on this allowance market (compared to other highly liquid financial markets). Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2014. "On the Stochastic Properties of Carbon Futures Prices," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(1), pages 127-153, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:58:y:2014:i:1:p:127-153
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-013-9695-2
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    5. Pan, Di & Zhang, Chen & Zhu, Dandan & Ji, Yuanpu & Cao, Wei, 2022. "A novel method of detecting carbon asset price jump characteristics based on significant information shocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    6. Zhang, Lixia & Luo, Qin & Guo, Xiaozhu & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Medium-term and long-term volatility forecasts for EUA futures with country-specific economic policy uncertainty indices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Yuanfeng Hu & Yixiang Tian & Luping Zhang, 2023. "Green Bond Pricing and Optimization Based on Carbon Emission Trading and Subsidies: From the Perspective of Externalities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, May.
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    9. Hu, Yuanfeng & Tian, Yixiang, 2024. "The role of green reputation, carbon trading and government intervention in determining the green bond pricing: An externality perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 46-62.
    10. Mason, Charles F. & Wilmot, Neil A., 2024. "On climate fat tails and politics," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    11. Julien Chevallier & Stéphane Goutte, 2014. "The goodness-of-fit of the fuel-switching price using the mean-reverting Lévy jump process," Working Papers 2014-285, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    12. Mason, Charles F. & A. Wilmot, Neil, 2014. "Jump processes in natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 69-79.
    13. Bai, Yiyi & Okullo, Samuel J., 2023. "Drivers and pass-through of the EU ETS price: Evidence from the power sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    14. Michele Leonardo Bianchi & Maurizio Magnani & Francesco Vercelli, 2024. "The use of derivatives on CO2-emission allowances in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 896, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    17. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2016. "Risk spillovers across the energy and carbon markets and hedging strategies for carbon risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 159-172.
    18. Coleman, Andrew, 2018. "Forest-based carbon sequestration, and the role of forward, futures, and carbon-lending markets: A comparative institutions approach," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 95-104.
    19. Julien Chevallier & Stéphane Goutte, 2017. "Estimation of Lévy-driven Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes: application to modeling of $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ CO 2 and fuel-switching," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 169-197, August.
    20. Dahlen, Niklas & Fehrenkötter, Rieke & Schreiter, Maximilian, 2024. "The new bond on the block — Designing a carbon-linked bond for sustainable investment projects," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 316-325.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon price; Stochastic modeling; Activity signature function; C14; C32; G1; Q4;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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