IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/29321.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Pricing and hedging in carbon emissions markets

Author

Listed:
  • Cetin, Umut
  • Verschuere, Michel

Abstract

We propose a model for trading in emission allowances in the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). Exploiting an arbitrage relationship we derive the spot prices of carbon allowances given a forward contract whose price is exogenous to the model. The modeling is done under the assumption of no banking of carbon allowances (which is valid during the Phase I of Kyoto protocol), however, we also discuss how the model can be extended when banking of permits is available. We employ results from filtering theory to derive the spot prices of permits and suggest hedging formulas using a local risk minimisation approach. We also consider the effect of intermediate announcements regarding the net position of the ETS zone on the prices and show that the jumps in the prices can be attributed to information release on the net position of the zone. We also provide a brief numerical simulation for the price processes of carbon allowances using our model to show the resemblance to the actual data.

Suggested Citation

  • Cetin, Umut & Verschuere, Michel, 2009. "Pricing and hedging in carbon emissions markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 29321, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:29321
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/29321/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schweizer, Martin, 1991. "Option hedging for semimartingales," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 339-363, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Georg Grüll & Luca Taschini, 2009. "A Comparison of Reduced-Form Permit Price Models and their Empirical Performances," Working Papers 0918, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-565 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2014. "On the Stochastic Properties of Carbon Futures Prices," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(1), pages 127-153, May.
    4. Chassagneux Jean-Francois & Chotai Hinesh & Crisan Dan, 2020. "Modelling multi-period carbon markets using singular forward backward SDEs," Papers 2008.09044, arXiv.org.
    5. Chang, Chia-Lin & Mai, Te-Ke & McAleer, Michael, 2019. "Establishing national carbon emission prices for China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-16.
    6. John Hua Fan & Eduardo Roca & Alexandr Akimov, 2010. "Hedging With Futures Contract: Estimation and Performance Evaluation of Optimal Hedge Ratios in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201009, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    7. John Hua Fan & Eduardo Roca & Alexandr Akimov, 2014. "Estimation and performance evaluation of optimal hedge ratios in the carbon market of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 39(1), pages 73-91, February.
    8. Juri Hinz & Alex Novikov, 2009. "On Fair Pricing of Emission-Related Derivatives," Research Paper Series 257, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. Andreas Welling, 2017. "Green Finance: Recent developments, characteristics and important actors," FEMM Working Papers 170002, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    10. Julien Chevallier & Stéphane Goutte, 2014. "The goodness-of-fit of the fuel-switching price using the mean-reverting Lévy jump process," Working Papers 2014-285, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    11. Huang, Zhehao & Dong, Hao & Jia, Shuaishuai, 2022. "Equilibrium pricing for carbon emission in response to the target of carbon emission peaking," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    12. Lukas, Elmar & Welling, Andreas, 2014. "Timing and eco(nomic) efficiency of climate-friendly investments in supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(2), pages 448-457.
    13. Chamorro, José M. & Abadie, Luis M. & de Neufville, Richard & Ilić, Marija, 2012. "Market-based valuation of transmission network expansion. A heuristic application in GB," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 302-320.
    14. Julien Chevallier & Stéphane Goutte, 2017. "Estimation of Lévy-driven Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes: application to modeling of $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ CO 2 and fuel-switching," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 169-197, August.
    15. Beat Hintermann, 2013. "Market Power in Emission Permit Markets: Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 4447, CESifo.
    16. Beat Hintermann, 2017. "Market Power in Emission Permit Markets: Theory and Evidence from the EU ETS," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(1), pages 89-112, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    2. Leonidas S. Rompolis & Elias Tzavalis, 2017. "Pricing and hedging contingent claims using variance and higher order moment swaps," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 531-550, April.
    3. A. Max Reppen & H. Mete Soner & Valentin Tissot-Daguette, 2022. "Deep Stochastic Optimization in Finance," Papers 2205.04604, arXiv.org.
    4. Choulli, Tahir & Vandaele, Nele & Vanmaele, Michèle, 2010. "The Föllmer-Schweizer decomposition: Comparison and description," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 120(6), pages 853-872, June.
    5. Mercurio, Fabio, 2001. "Claim pricing and hedging under market incompleteness and "mean-variance" preferences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 133(3), pages 635-652, September.
    6. Wang, Xingchun & Zhang, Han, 2022. "Pricing basket spread options with default risk under Heston–Nandi GARCH models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    7. Dirk Becherer & Martin Schweizer, 2005. "Classical solutions to reaction-diffusion systems for hedging problems with interacting Ito and point processes," Papers math/0505208, arXiv.org.
    8. Gondzio, Jacek & Kouwenberg, Roy & Vorst, Ton, 2003. "Hedging options under transaction costs and stochastic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1045-1068, April.
    9. Gerald Cheang & Carl Chiarella, 2011. "A Modern View on Merton's Jump-Diffusion Model," Research Paper Series 287, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    10. J.L. Prigent & O. Scaillet, 2000. "Weak Convergence of Hedging Strategies of Contingent Claims," THEMA Working Papers 2000-50, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    11. Ceci, Claudia & Cretarola, Alessandra & Russo, Francesco, 2014. "BSDEs under partial information and financial applications," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 124(8), pages 2628-2653.
    12. Eckhard Platen & Stefan Tappe, 2020. "The Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing for Self-Financing Portfolios," Research Paper Series 411, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    13. Carbonneau, Alexandre, 2021. "Deep hedging of long-term financial derivatives," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 327-340.
    14. Moreau, Ludovic, 2012. "A contribution in stochastic control applied to finance and insurance," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/10711 edited by Bouchard, Bruno.
    15. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2013.
    16. A. Max Reppen & H. Mete Soner & Valentin Tissot-Daguette, 2023. "Deep stochastic optimization in finance," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 91-111, March.
    17. Dilip Madan, 2011. "Joint risk-neutral laws and hedging," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(12), pages 840-850.
    18. Chong, Wing Fung, 2019. "Pricing and hedging equity-linked life insurance contracts beyond the classical paradigm: The principle of equivalent forward preferences," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 93-107.
    19. Alexandre Adam & Hamza Cherrat & Mohamed Houkari & Jean-Paul Laurent & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2022. "On the risk management of demand deposits: quadratic hedging of interest rate margins," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1319-1355, June.
    20. Anne Eyraud-Loisel, 2013. "Quadratic hedging in an incomplete market derived by an influent informed investor," Post-Print hal-00450949, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 emission allowances; EU ETS; incomplete information; stochastic filtering; minimal martingale measure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:29321. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.