An Options Pricing Approach for CO2 Allowances in the EU ETS
If firms are unable to fully control their emissions, the cap in a permit market may be exceeded. Using stochastic aggregate emissions as the underlying I derive an options pricing formula that expresses the permit price as a function of the penalty for noncompliance and the probability of a binding cap. I apply my model to the EU ETS, where rapid market setup made it difficult for firms to adjust their production technology in time for phase 1. The model fits the data well, implying that the permit price was driven by firms hedging against stochastic emissions rather than marginal abatement costs.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: ETH-CEPE, Zürichbergstrasse 18, 8032 Zürich|
Phone: +41-1-632 06 50
Fax: +41-1-632 16 22
Web page: http://www.cepe.ethz.ch
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jinhua Zhao, 2000.
"Irreversible Abatement Investment Under Cost Uncertainties: Tradable Emission Permits and Emissions Charges,"
Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications
00-wp252, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
- Zhao, Jinhua, 2003. "Irreversible abatement investment under cost uncertainties: tradable emission permits and emissions charges," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2765-2789, December.
- Zhao, Jinhua, 2000. "Irreversible Abatement Investment Under Cost Uncertainties: Tradable Emission Permits And Emissions Charges," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21816, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Zhao, Jinhua, 2003. "Irreversible Abatement Investment Under Cost Uncertainties: Tradable Emission Permits and Emissions Charges," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10223, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Marc Chesney & Luca Taschini, 2008. "The Endogenous Price Dynamics of the Emission Allowances: An Application to CO2 Option Pricing," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-01, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jan 2008.
- Jos Sijm & Karsten Neuhoff & Yihsu Chen, 2006.
"CO 2 cost pass-through and windfall profits in the power sector,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 49-72, January.
- Sijm, J. & Neuhoff, K. & Chen, Y., 2006. "CO2 cost pass through and windfall profits in the power sector," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0639, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Schennach, Susanne M., 2000. "The Economics of Pollution Permit Banking in the Context of Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 189-210, November.
- Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
- Böhringer, Christoph & Lange, Andreas, 2003.
"On the Design of Optimal Grandfathering Schemes for Emission Allowances,"
ZEW Discussion Papers
03-08, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Bohringer, Christoph & Lange, Andreas, 2005. "On the design of optimal grandfathering schemes for emission allowances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 2041-2055, November.
- Pizer, William & Newell, Richard & Zhang, Jiangfeng, 2003.
"Managing Permit Markets to Stabilize Prices,"
dp-03-34, Resources For the Future.
- Paul Leiby & Jonathan Rubin, 2001. "Intertemporal Permit Trading for the Control of Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 19(3), pages 229-256, July.
- Rickels, Wilfried & Duscha, Vicki & Keller, Andreas & Peterson, Sonja, 2007. "The determinants of allowance prices in the European emissions trading scheme: Can we expect an efficient allowance market 2008?," Kiel Working Papers 1387, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Cronshaw, Mark B & Brown-Kruse, Jamie, 1996. "Regulated Firms in Pollution Permit Markets with Banking," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 179-189, March.
- Peter Alaton & Boualem Djehiche & David Stillberger, 2002. "On modelling and pricing weather derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
- Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
- Montgomery, W. David, 1972. "Markets in licenses and efficient pollution control programs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 395-418, December.
- Rubin, Jonathan D., 1996. "A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 269-286, November.
- Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
- Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Angel Pardo & Enric Valor, 2007. "CO2 Prices, Energy and Weather," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-92.
- Marc S. Paoletta & Luca Taschini, 2006. "An Econometric Analysis of Emission Trading Allowances," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 06-26, Swiss Finance Institute.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cee:wpcepe:09-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carlos Ordas)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.