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Allowance Price Drivers in the First Phase of the EU ETS

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  • Beat Hintermann

    (Center for Energy Policy and Economics CEPE, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

Abstract

In the first phase of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), the price per ton of CO2 rose to over €30 before decreasing to zero by mid 2007. I examine to what extent this variation can be explained by marginal abatement costs by deriving a structural model of the allowance price under the assumption of efficient markets. I then gradually relax the model by allowing for delayed adjustment of price to fundamentals, as well as by introducing lagged LHS variables. The pattern of the results suggests that prices were not initially driven by marginal abatement costs, but that this inefficiency was largely corrected by the first round of emission verifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Beat Hintermann, 2009. "Allowance Price Drivers in the First Phase of the EU ETS," CEPE Working paper series 09-63, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
  • Handle: RePEc:cee:wpcepe:09-63
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emissions permit markets; air pollution; climate change; bubble; speculation; CO2; asset pricing; EU ETS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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