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The Endogenous Price Dynamics of the Emission Allowances: An Application to CO2 Option Pricing

  • Marc Chesney

    (University of Zurich and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Luca Taschini

    (University of Zurich)

Market mechanisms are increasingly being used as a tool for allocating somewhat scarce but unpriced rights and resources, such as air and water. Tradable permits have emerged as the most cost–effective measure leading to the emergence of both nationwide (SO2) and supranational (CO2) emission permits markets. By means of the dynamic optimization of companies which are covered by such environmental regulations, we develop an endogenous model for the emission permit spot price dynamics that also accounts for the presence of asymmetric information. In the model, the companies are characterized by exogenous pollution processes that, in the short term, are the underlying of the permit price dynamics. An extensive numerical exercise is carried out for the CO2 permit price in the European market. We introduce for the first-time in the current literature a CO2 option pricing model comparison. The option pricing method can be used for hedging purposes and for pricing CO2-linked projects and investments.

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Paper provided by Swiss Finance Institute in its series Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series with number 08-01.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2008
Date of revision: Jan 2008
Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp0802
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.SwissFinanceInstitute.ch

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  1. Zhao, Jinhua, 2003. "Irreversible Abatement Investment Under Cost Uncertainties: Tradable Emission Permits and Emissions Charges," Staff General Research Papers 10223, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  2. Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
  3. Cason, Timothy N. & Gangadharan, Lata, 2006. "Emissions variability in tradable permit markets with imperfect enforcement and banking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 199-216, October.
  4. Schennach, Susanne M., 2000. "The Economics of Pollution Permit Banking in the Context of Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 189-210, November.
  5. Coggins, Jay S. & Swinton, John R., 1996. "The Price of Pollution: A Dual Approach to Valuing SO2Allowances," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 58-72, January.
  6. Doucet, Joseph A. & Strauss, Todd, 1994. "On the bundling of coal and sulfur dioxide emissions allowances," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 764-770, September.
  7. Daskalakis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Modeling CO2 emission allowance prices and derivatives: Evidence from the European trading scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1230-1241, July.
  8. Kling, Catherine & Rubin, Jonathan, 1997. "Bankable permits for the control of environmental pollution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 101-115, April.
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  10. Szabo, Laszlo & Hidalgo, Ignacio & Ciscar, Juan Carlos & Soria, Antonio, 2006. "CO2 emission trading within the European Union and Annex B countries: the cement industry case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 72-87, January.
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  12. Montero, Juan-Pablo, 1998. "Marketable pollution permits with uncertainty and transaction costs," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 27-50, March.
  13. Hélyette Geman & Marc Yor, 1993. "Bessel Processes, Asian Options, And Perpetuities," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 349-375.
  14. Margaret Insley, 2002. "On the option to invest in pollution control under a regime of tradable emissions allowances," Working Papers 02008, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2002.
  15. Farzin, Y H & Kort, P M, 2000. " Pollution Abatement Investment When Environmental Regulation Is Uncertain," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 2(2), pages 183-212.
  16. Rubin, Jonathan D., 1996. "A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 269-286, November.
  17. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521322249 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Joskow, Paul L & Schmalensee, Richard, 1998. "The Political Economy of Market-Based Environmental Policy: The U.S. Acid Rain Program," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(1), pages 37-83, April.
  19. Hidalgo, Ignacio & Szabo, Laszlo & Carlos Ciscar, Juan & Soria, Antonio, 2005. "Technological prospects and CO2 emission trading analyses in the iron and steel industry: A global model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 583-610.
  20. Stavins, Robert N., 1996. "Correlated Uncertainty and Policy Instrument Choice," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 218-232, March.
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