What explains the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions?
Using the vector auto-regression (VAR) and the vector error-correction Models (VECM), this paper analyzes the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions in response to changes in the prices of oil, coal, natural gas, electricity and carbon emission allowances. The results show that: (i) a positive shock to the crude oil prices has a negative effect on the CO2 allowance prices; (ii) an unexpected increase in the natural gas prices raises the price of CO2 emissions; (iii) a positive shock to the prices of the fuel of choice, coal, has virtually no significant impact on the CO2 prices; (iv) there is a clear positive effect of the coal prices on the CO2 allowance prices when the electricity prices are excluded from the VAR system; and (v) a positive shock to the electricity prices reduces the price of the CO2 allowances. We also find that the energy price shocks have a persistent impact on the CO2 allowance prices, with the largest effect occurring six months after a shock strikes. The effect is particularly strong in the case of the natural gas price shocks. Additionally, we estimate that it takes between 7.3 and 9.6 months to halve the gap between the actual and the equilibrium prices of the CO2 allowances, i.e., to erase any price over- or undervaluations after a shock strikes. Finally, the empirical findings suggest an important degree of substitution between the three primary sources of energy (i.e., crude oil, natural gas and coal), particularly, when electricity prices are excluded from the VAR system.
|Date of creation:||2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +351-253604510 ext 5532
Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Schleich, Joachim & Ehrhart, Karl-Martin & Hoppe, Christian & Seifert, Stefan, 2006.
"Banning banking in EU emissions trading?,"
Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-120, January.
- Christoph Böhringer & Andreas Lange, 2005. "Economic Implications of Alternative Allocation Schemes for Emission Allowances," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(3), pages 563-581, 09.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2005.
"Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997.
"Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
- Ciarreta Antuñano, Aitor & Espinosa Alejos, María Paz, 2010.
"The Impact of Regulation on Pricing Behavior in the Spanish Electricity Market,"
DFAEII Working Papers
2010-08, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
- Ciarreta, Aitor & Espinosa, María Paz, 2012. "The impact of regulation on pricing behavior in the Spanish electricity market (2002–2005)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2039-2045.
- Ahmed Atil & Amine Lahiani & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of crude oil prices to gasoline and natural gas prices," Post-Print halshs-01022598, HAL.
- Green, Richard, 1999. "The Electricity Contract Market in England and Wales," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 107-24, March.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
- Arouri, Mohamed El Hédi & Jawadi, Fredj & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Nonlinearities in carbon spot-futures price relationships during Phase II of the EU ETS," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 884-892.
- Catherine D. Wolfram, 1999. "Measuring Duopoly Power in the British Electricity Spot Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 805-826, September.
- Burtraw, Dallas & Palmer, Karen & Bharvirkar, Ranjit & Paul, Anthony, 2002.
"The Effect on Asset Values of the Allocation of Carbon Dioxide Emission Allowances,"
dp-02-15-, Resources For the Future.
- Burtraw, Dallas & Palmer, Karen & Bharvirkar, Ranjit & Paul, Anthony, 2002. "The Effect on Asset Values of the Allocation of Carbon Dioxide Emission Allowances," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 51-62, June.
- Oberndorfer, Ulrich, 2009. "EU Emission Allowances and the stock market: Evidence from the electricity industry," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 1116-1126, February.
- Rezek, Jon P., 1999. "Shadow Prices Of Sulfur Dioxide Allowance In Phase I Electric Utilities," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21638, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Atil, Ahmed & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014.
"Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of crude oil prices to gasoline and natural gas prices,"
Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 567-573.
- Ahmed Atil & Amine Lahiani & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "Asymmetric and nonlinear passthrough of crude oil prices to gasoline and natural gas prices," Working Papers 2014-569, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
- Bokenkamp, Karl & LaFlash, Hal & Singh, Virinder & Bachrach Wang, Devra, 2005. "Hedging Carbon Risk: Protecting Customers and Shareholders from the Financial Risk Associated with Carbon Dioxide Emissions," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 11-24, July.
- Hamilton, James D., 2003.
"What is an oil shock?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
- Daskalakis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Modeling CO2 emission allowance prices and derivatives: Evidence from the European trading scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1230-1241, July.
- Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
- Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Chèze, Benoît, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-07," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4222, Paris Dauphine University.
- Rittler, Daniel, 2012. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the European Union emissions trading scheme: A high-frequency analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 774-785.
- Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
- Schennach, Susanne M., 2000. "The Economics of Pollution Permit Banking in the Context of Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 189-210, November.
- Lardic, Sandrine & Mignon, Valérie, 2008. "Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 847-855, May.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Stefan Trück & Wolfgang Härdle & Rafal Weron, 2012. "The relationship between spot and futures CO2 emission allowance prices in the EU-ETS," HSC Research Reports HSC/12/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:04/2014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maria João Thompson)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.