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Risk Spillovers across the Energy and Carbon Markets and Hedging Strategies for Carbon Risk

Author

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  • Mehmet Balcilar

    () (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus)

  • Riza Demirer

    () (Department of Economics & Finance Southern Illinois University)

  • Shawkat Hammoudeh

    (3200 Market Street Philadelphia, PA 19104 U.S.A Author-Email: -)

  • Duc Khuong Nguyen

Abstract

This study examines the risk spillovers between energy futures prices and Europe-based carbon futures contracts. We use a Markov regime-switching dynamic correlation, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MSDCC- GARCH) model in order to capture the time variations and structural breaks in the spillovers. We further evaluate the optimal weights, hedging effectiveness, and dynamic hedging strategies for the MS-DCC-GARCH model based on both the regime dependent and regime independent optimal hedge ratios. We finally complement our analysis by examining the in- and out-of sample hedging performances for alternative strategies. Our results mainly show significant volatility and time-varying risk transmission from energy markets to carbon market. We also find that spot and futures segments of the emission markets exhibit time-varying correlations and volatile hedging effectiveness. These results have important investment and policy implications

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "Risk Spillovers across the Energy and Carbon Markets and Hedging Strategies for Carbon Risk," Working Papers 15-10, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-10.pdf
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    1. repec:eee:enepol:v:107:y:2017:i:c:p:309-322 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Cunado, Juncal & Filis, George & Gabauer, David & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2018. "Oil volatility, oil and gas firms and portfolio diversification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 499-515.
    3. Qiang Ji & Bing-Yue Liu & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Risk Spillover between the US and the Remaining G7 Stock Markets Using Time-Varying Copulas with Markov Switching: Evidence from Over a Century of Data," Working Papers 201759, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Wen, Xiaoqian & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Can energy commodity futures add to the value of carbon assets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 194-206.
    5. repec:eee:eneeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:559-570 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:9:p:3255-:d:169312 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Do Sustainable Stocks Offer Diversification Benefits for Conventional Portfolios? An Empirical Analysis of Risk Spillovers and Dynamic Correlations," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(10), pages 1-18, October.
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    9. Adekunle, Salami Saheed & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Assessing the viability of Sukuk for portfolio diversification using MS-DCC-GARCH," MPRA Paper 79443, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Volatility Spillovers across Global Asset Classes: Evidence from Time and Frequency Domains," Working Papers 201780, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2017. "Wavelet-based test of co-movement and causality between oil and renewable energy stock prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 241-252.
    12. Muteba Mwamba, John W. & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Financial tail risks in conventional and Islamic stock markets: A comparative analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 60-82.
    13. Tan, Xue-Ping & Wang, Xin-Yu, 2017. "Dependence changes between the carbon price and its fundamentals: A quantile regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 306-325.
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    15. repec:eee:ecmode:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:278-295 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multivariate regime-switching; time-varying correlations; hedging; CO2 allowance prices;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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