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Modeling the dynamics of European carbon futures price: a Zipf analysis

  • Bangzhu Zhu
  • Shujiao Ma
  • Julien Chevallier
  • Yiming Wei

This article investigates the European carbon futures price dynamics by applying the Zipf analysis. The results show that: first, carbon price behaviour is asymmetric, and the long-term bearish probability is greater than the long-term bullish probability

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Paper provided by Department of Research, Ipag Business School in its series Working Papers with number 2014-155.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-155
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  1. Conrad, Christian & Rittler, Daniel & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2012. "Modeling and explaining the dynamics of European Union Allowance prices at high-frequency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 316-326.
  2. Bangzhu Zhu, 2012. "A Novel Multiscale Ensemble Carbon Price Prediction Model Integrating Empirical Mode Decomposition, Genetic Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(2), pages 355, February.
  3. Xiao, Di & Wang, Jun, 2012. "Modeling stock price dynamics by continuum percolation system and relevant complex systems analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(20), pages 4827-4838.
  4. Feng, Zhen-Hua & Zou, Le-Le & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2011. "Carbon price volatility: Evidence from EU ETS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 590-598, March.
  5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4210 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2010. "An overview of current research on EU ETS: Evidence from its operating mechanism and economic effect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1804-1814, June.
  7. Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian & Mercier, Ludovic, 2009. "Risk aversion and institutional information disclosure on the European carbon market: A case-study of the 2006 compliance event," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 15-28, January.
  8. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Soriano, Angel & Cisneros, Myriam & Suarez, Rodolfo, 2003. "Symmetry/anti-symmetry phase transitions in crude oil markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 322(C), pages 583-596.
  9. Anna Creti & Pierre-André Jouvet & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I versus Phase II Equilibrium?," Working Papers 1106, Chaire Economie du Climat.
  10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4222 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
  12. Vandewalle, N. & Ausloos, M., 1999. "The n-Zipf analysis of financial data series and biased data series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 240-249.
  13. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4221 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Chevallier, Julien, 2009. "Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors: A view from the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 614-625, July.
  15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4349 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6791 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Alexandre Kossoy & Pierre Guigon, . "State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2012," World Bank Other Operational Studies 13336, The World Bank.
  18. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Nonparametric modeling of carbon prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1267-1282.
  19. Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Angel Pardo & Enric Valor, 2007. "CO2 Prices, Energy and Weather," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-92.
  20. Hongli Niu & Jun Wang, 2013. "Power-law scaling behavior analysis of financial time series model by voter interacting dynamic system," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(10), pages 2188-2203, October.
  21. Julien Chevallier, 2010. "Volatility forecasting of carbon prices using factor models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1642-1660.
  22. Paolella, Marc S. & Taschini, Luca, 2008. "An econometric analysis of emission allowance prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2022-2032, October.
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