Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I Versus Phase II Equilibrium?
The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of the carbon price during the two phases of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). More specifically, relying on daily EU allowance futures contracts, we test whether the carbon price drivers identified for Phase I still hold for Phase II and evolve toward a long-run relationship. Using cointegration techniques and accounting for the 2006 structural break on the carbon market, we show that while a cointegrating relationship exists for both phases of the EU ETS, the nature of this equilibrium relationship is different across the two subperiods, with an increasing role of fundamentals in Phase II. Deriving equilibrium values, we show that the carbon price tends to be undervalued since the end of 2009.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 33 01 53 68 55 00
Fax: 33 01 53 68 55 01
Web page: http://www.cepii.fr
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Wilfried Rickels & Vicki Duscha & Andreas Keller & Sonja Peterson, 2007. "The determinants of allowance prices in the European Emissions Trading Scheme - Can we expect an efficient allowance market 2008?," Kiel Working Papers 1387, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Frank Convery & Christian De Perthuis & Denny Ellerman, 2008. "The European Carbon Market In Action: Lessons From The First Trading Period. Interim Report," Working Papers 0802, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987.
"Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
- Considine , Timothy J. & Larson, Donald F., 2009. "Substitution and technological change under carbon cap and trade : lessons from Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4957, The World Bank.
- Beat Hintermann, 2009.
"Allowance Price Drivers in the First Phase of the EU ETS,"
CEPE Working paper series
09-63, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
- Hintermann, Beat, 2010. "Allowance price drivers in the first phase of the EU ETS," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-56, January.
- Rubin, Jonathan D., 1996. "A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 269-286, November.
- Denny, Eleanor & O'Malley, Mark, 2009. "The impact of carbon prices on generation-cycling costs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1204-1212, April.
- A. C. Christiansen & A. Arvanitakis & K. Tangen & H. Hasselknippe, 2005. "Price determinants in the EU emissions trading scheme," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 15-30, January.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521196475 is not listed on IDEAS
- Emilie Alberola & Julien Pierre Chevallier & Benoît Chèze, 2007.
"European carbon prices fundamentals in 2005-2007: the effects of energy markets, temperatures and sectorial production,"
EconomiX Working Papers
2007-33, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Chevallier, Julien & Alberola, Emilie & Chèze, Benoît, 2008. "European carbon prices fundamentals in 2005-2007: the effects of energy markets, temperatures and sectorial production," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4229, Paris Dauphine University.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990.
"Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
- Tom Doan, . "FM: RATS procedure to estimate cointegrating vectors using Fully Modified Least Squares," Statistical Software Components RTS00069, Boston College Department of Economics.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
- Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Keppler, Jan Horst & Mansanet-Bataller, Maria, 2010.
"Causalities between CO2, electricity, and other energy variables during phase I and phase II of the EU ETS,"
Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3329-3341, July.
- Keppler, Jan Horst & Mansanet-Bataller, Maria, 2010. "Causalities between CO2, electricity, and other energy variables during phase I and phase II of the EU ETS," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/5269, Paris Dauphine University.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Angel Pardo & Enric Valor, 2007. "CO2 Prices, Energy and Weather," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-92.
- Emilic Alberola & Julien Chevallier & Benoit Cheze, 2008.
"The EU Emissions Trading Scheme: the Effects of Industrial Production and CO2 Emissions on Carbon Prices,"
CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 93-126.
- Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Chèze, Benoît, 2008. "The EU emissions trading scheme : The effects of industrial production and CO2 emissions on carbon prices," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4223, Paris Dauphine University.
- Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
- Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Nason, James M. & Watt, David G., 1996. "Testing for structural breaks in cointegrated relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 321-341.
- Wilfried Rickels & Dennis Görlich & Gerrit Oberst, 2010. "Explaining European Emission Allowance Price Dynamics: Evidence from Phase II," Kiel Working Papers 1650, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Bredin, Don & Muckley, Cal, 2011. "An emerging equilibrium in the EU emissions trading scheme," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 353-362, March.
- Emilie Alberola & Benoît Chèze & Julien Chevallier, 2008. "The EU Emissions Trading Scheme : Disentangling the Effects of Industrial Production and CO2 Emissions on Carbon Prices," EconomiX Working Papers 2008-12, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Daskalakis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Modeling CO2 emission allowance prices and derivatives: Evidence from the European trading scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1230-1241, July.
- Delarue, E.D. & Ellerman, A.D. & D'haeseleer, W.D., 2010. "Robust MACCs? The topography of abatement by fuel switching in the European power sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1465-1475.
- Roselyne Joyeux & George Milunovich, 2010. "Testing market efficiency in the EU carbon futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 803-809.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- George Milunovich & Roselyne Joyeux, 2007. "Testing Market Efficiency and Price Discovery in European Carbon Markets," Research Papers 0701, Macquarie University, Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.