Price determination in the EU ETS market: Theory and econometric analysis with market fundamentals
We investigate the price determination of the European Union emission allowance (EUA) of the European Union emissions trading scheme (EU ETS). We postulate an uncertain permit price and risk-averse firms which have the possibility to hedge in the forward market. The firms produce final goods, abate their emissions and trade permits in the permit market. The dependence of the equilibrium permit price on exogenous variables is studied in a permit market model. We test our theoretical findings with empirical data from 2005 to 2010 in the EU ETS market. We use daily forward prices of EUA as our dependent variable. We use several econometric models with multiple stationary time series to discover that there is a strong relationship between the fundamentals, such as German electricity prices and gas and coal prices, with the price of EUA. We find that the EUA forward price depends on fundamentals, especially on the price of electricity as well as on the gas–coal difference, in a statistically significant way.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hintermann, Beat, 2010.
"Allowance price drivers in the first phase of the EU ETS,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-56, January.
- Beat Hintermann, 2009. "Allowance Price Drivers in the First Phase of the EU ETS," CEPE Working paper series 09-63, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/4222 is not listed on IDEAS
- Keppler, Jan Horst & Mansanet-Bataller, Maria, 2010. "Causalities between CO2, electricity, and other energy variables during phase I and phase II of the EU ETS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3329-3341, July.
- Creti, Anna & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Carbon price drivers: Phase I versus Phase II equilibrium?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 327-334.
- Anna Creti & Pierre-André Jouvet & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I Versus Phase II Equilibrium?," Working Papers 2011-09, CEPII research center.
- Anna Creti & Pierre-André Jouvet & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I versus Phase II Equilibrium?," Working Papers 1106, Chaire Economie du climat.
- Anna Creti & Pierre-André Jouvet & Valérie Mignon, 2012. "Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I versus Phase II Equilibrium?," Post-Print hal-01385813, HAL.
- Jūratė Jaraitė & Frank Convery & Corrado Di Maria, 2010. "Transaction costs for firms in the EU ETS: lessons from Ireland," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 190-215, March.
- Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
- Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
- Mansanet-Bataller, Maria & Chevallier, Julien & Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan & Alberola, Emilie, 2011. "EUA and sCER phase II price drivers: Unveiling the reasons for the existence of the EUA-sCER spread," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1056-1069, March.
- Emilie Alberola & Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Julien Chevallier & Morgan Hervé-Mignucci, 2011. "EUA and sCER phase II price drivers: Unveiling the reasons for the existence of the EUA-sCER spread," Post-Print hal-00575614, HAL.
- Jos Sijm & Karsten Neuhoff & Yihsu Chen, 2006. "CO 2 cost pass-through and windfall profits in the power sector," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 49-72, January.
- Sijm, J. & Neuhoff, K. & Chen, Y., 2006. "CO2 cost pass through and windfall profits in the power sector," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0639, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/4210 is not listed on IDEAS
- Barry Anderson & Corrado Di Maria, 2011. "Abatement and Allocation in the Pilot Phase of the EU ETS," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(1), pages 83-103, January.
- Corrado Di Maria & Barry Anderson & Frank Convery, 2009. "Abatement and Allocation in the Pilot Phase of the EU ETS," Working Papers 2009.110, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Rickels, Wilfried & Duscha, Vicki & Keller, Andreas & Peterson, Sonja, 2007. "The determinants of allowance prices in the European emissions trading scheme: Can we expect an efficient allowance market 2008?," Kiel Working Papers 1387, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
- Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 1187-1214, November.
- Davis, Lucas W & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions," CEPR Discussion Papers 7161, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions," NBER Working Papers 14685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wilfried Rickels & Dennis Görlich & Sonja Peterson, 2015. "Explaining European Emission Allowance Price Dynamics: Evidence from Phase II," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(2), pages 181-202, 05.
- Rickels, Wilfried & Görlich, Dennis & Oberst, Gerrit, 2010. "Explaining European emission allowance price dynamics: Evidence from Phase II," Kiel Working Papers 1650, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- A. C. Christiansen & A. Arvanitakis & K. Tangen & H. Hasselknippe, 2005. "Price determinants in the EU emissions trading scheme," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 15-30, January.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Delarue, E.D. & Ellerman, A.D. & D'haeseleer, W.D., 2010. "Robust MACCs? The topography of abatement by fuel switching in the European power sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1465-1475.
- Chevallier, Julien, 2009. "Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors: A view from the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 614-625, July.
- Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
- Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Angel Pardo & Enric Valor, 2007. "CO2 Prices, Energy and Weather," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-92.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/5269 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/5109 is not listed on IDEAS
- Daskalakis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Modeling CO2 emission allowance prices and derivatives: Evidence from the European trading scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1230-1241, July.
- Bredin, Don & Muckley, Cal, 2011. "An emerging equilibrium in the EU emissions trading scheme," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 353-362, March.
- Baldursson, Fridrik M & von der Fehr, N.-H.M.Nils-Henrik M, 2004. "Price volatility and risk exposure: on market-based environmental policy instruments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 682-704, July.
- Keppler, Jan Horst & Cruciani, Michel, 2010. "Rents in the European power sector due to carbon trading," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4280-4290, August.
- Daskalakis, George & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Are electricity risk premia affected by emission allowance prices? Evidence from the EEX, Nord Pool and Powernext," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2594-2604, July.
- Holthausen, Duncan M, 1979. "Hedging and the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 989-995, December.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/2570 is not listed on IDEAS
- A. Ellerman & Barbara Buchner, 2008. "Over-Allocation or Abatement? A Preliminary Analysis of the EU ETS Based on the 2005–06 Emissions Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 267-287, October.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:36:y:2013:i:c:p:380-395. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.