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From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS

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  • Friedrich, Marina
  • Mauer, Eva-Maria
  • Pahle, Michael
  • Tietjen, Oliver

Abstract

Price formation in the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) has persistently puzzled economists and policy makers. In recent years, the empirical literature investigating this topic has expanded considerably, but a synthesis of what could be learned about price formation as a whole including the last wave of research is still missing. To fill this gap, we review the empirical literature structured along three categories of price drivers and related econometric methods. For better guidance of the reader, we draw on a simple theoretical model of price formation that we subsequently extend to connect the three different strands of literature: demand-side fundamentals, regulatory intervention, and finance. In particular the insights from the second and third strand challenge the widespread view that allowance markets primarily reflect marginal abatement costs. Accordingly, the next wave of research should focus on shedding light on the complex interplay of compliance, regulatory uncertainty and financial trading motives.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedrich, Marina & Mauer, Eva-Maria & Pahle, Michael & Tietjen, Oliver, 2020. "From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS," EconStor Preprints 196150, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:196150
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    Cited by:

    1. Tietjen, Oliver & Lessmann, Kai & Pahle, Michael, 2021. "Hedging and temporal permit issuances in cap-and-trade programs: The Market Stability Reserve under risk aversion," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Marina Friedrich & S'ebastien Fries & Michael Pahle & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2019. "Understanding the explosive trend in EU ETS prices -- fundamentals or speculation?," Papers 1906.10572, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    3. Marina Friedrich & Sébastien Fries & Michael Pahle & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2020. "Rules vs. Discretion in Cap-and-Trade Programs: Evidence from the EU Emission Trading System," CESifo Working Paper Series 8637, CESifo.

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    Keywords

    emission trading; literature review; EU ETS; price formation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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