Market efficiency in the European carbon markets
In this paper, we study the relationship between futures and spot prices in the European carbon markets from the cost-of-carry hypothesis. The aim is to investigate the extent of efficiency market. The three main European markets (BlueNext, EEX and ECX) are analyzed during Phase II, covering the period from March 13, 2009 to January, 17, 2012. Futures contracts are found to be cointegrated with spot prices and interest rates for several maturities in the three CO2 markets. Results are similar when structural breaks are taken into account. According to individual and joint tests, the cost-of-carry model is rejected for all maturities and CO2 markets, implying that neither contract is priced according to the cost-of-carry model. The absence of the cost-of-carry relationship can be interpreted as an indicator of market inefficiency and may bring arbitrage opportunities in the CO2 market.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. " One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-99, September.
- Frank Convery, 2009. "Origins and Development of the EU ETS," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 391-412, July.
- Julien Chevallier, 2012. "Banking And Borrowing In The Eu Ets: A Review Of Economic Modelling, Current Provisions And Prospects For Future Design," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 157-176, 02.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/4611 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003.
"Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Tom Doan, . "MULTIPLEBREAKS: RATS procedure to perform multiple structural change analysis," Statistical Software Components RTS00138, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "BAIPERRON: RATS procedure to perform Bai-Perron Test for Multiple Structural Changes," Statistical Software Components RTS00013, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate examples of Bai-Perron procedure," Statistical Software Components RTZ00008, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Szymon Borak & Wolfgang Härdle & Stefan Trück & Rafal Weron, 2006. "Convenience Yields for CO2 Emission Allowance Futures Contracts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-076, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Cointegration between oil spot and future prices of the same and different grades in the presence of structural change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1687-1693, May.
- Paolella, Marc S. & Taschini, Luca, 2008. "An econometric analysis of emission allowance prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2022-2032, October.
- Lütkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti & Trenkler, Carsten, 2000.
"Maximum eigenvalue versus trace tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
2000,83, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen & Carsten Trenkler, 2001. "Maximum eigenvalue versus trace tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 8.
- Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
- Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000.
"Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
- Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1494, Econometric Society.
- Bent Nielsen & Soren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W22, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Pantula, Sastry G., 1989. "Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 256-271, August.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, May.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
- Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
- Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
- Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar & Hoque, Ariful, 2011. "Efficiency of European emissions markets: Lessons and implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6575-6582, October.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Nason, James M. & Watt, David G., 1996. "Testing for structural breaks in cointegrated relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 321-341.
- Daskalakis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Modeling CO2 emission allowance prices and derivatives: Evidence from the European trading scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1230-1241, July.
- Roselyne Joyeux & George Milunovich, 2010. "Testing market efficiency in the EU carbon futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 803-809.
- Protopapadakis, Aris & Stoll, Hans R, 1983.
" Spot and Futures Prices and the Law of One Price,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1431-55, December.
- Aris Protopapadakis & Hans R. Stoll, . "Spot and Futures Prices and the Law of One Price," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 17-82, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/4222 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ronald W. Ward, 1982. "Asymmetry in Retail, Wholesale, and Shipping Point Pricing for Fresh Vegetables," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(2), pages 205-212.
- Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 441-468, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:60:y:2013:i:c:p:785-792. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.