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Market efficiency in the European carbon markets

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  • Charles, Amélie
  • Darné, Olivier
  • Fouilloux, Jessica

Abstract

In this paper, we study the relationship between futures and spot prices in the European carbon markets from the cost-of-carry hypothesis. The aim is to investigate the extent of efficiency market. The three main European markets (BlueNext, EEX and ECX) are analyzed during Phase II, covering the period from March 13, 2009 to January, 17, 2012. Futures contracts are found to be cointegrated with spot prices and interest rates for several maturities in the three CO2 markets. Results are similar when structural breaks are taken into account. According to individual and joint tests, the cost-of-carry model is rejected for all maturities and CO2 markets, implying that neither contract is priced according to the cost-of-carry model. The absence of the cost-of-carry relationship can be interpreted as an indicator of market inefficiency and may bring arbitrage opportunities in the CO2 market.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Fouilloux, Jessica, 2013. "Market efficiency in the European carbon markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 785-792.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:60:y:2013:i:c:p:785-792
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.036
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Xin-gang & Jiang, Gui-wu & Nie, Dan & Chen, Hao, 2016. "How to improve the market efficiency of carbon trading: A perspective of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1229-1245.
    2. Andreas Karpf & Antoine Mandel & Stefano Battiston, 2017. "Price and Network Dynamics in the European Carbon Market," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01484117, HAL.
    3. repec:eee:enepol:v:107:y:2017:i:c:p:119-130 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2016. "Modeling persistence of carbon emission allowance prices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 221-226.
    5. Schultz, Emma & Swieringa, John, 2014. "Catalysts for price discovery in the European Union Emissions Trading System," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 112-122.
    6. Tan, Xue-Ping & Wang, Xin-Yu, 2017. "Dependence changes between the carbon price and its fundamentals: A quantile regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 306-325.

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    Keywords

    CO2 emission allowances; Cost-of-carry model; Market efficiency;

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