IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Cointegration between oil spot and future prices of the same and different grades in the presence of structural change

  • Maslyuk, Svetlana
  • Smyth, Russell

The purpose of this study is to examine whether crude oil spot and futures prices of the same and different grades are cointegrated using a residual-based cointegration test that allows for one structural break in the cointegrating vector and high-frequency data. We choose the US WTI and the UK Brent as the representative crudes for this analysis since these two crudes have well-established spot and futures markets. We find that spot and future prices of the same grade as well as spot and futures prices of different grades are cointegrated. We examine potential causes of structural change as revealed by the cointegration test in terms of events that have impacted on world oil markets as well as discuss the implications of the results for hedge managers, investors and regulators.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4VNCJG5-8/2/dc995b816f3834f06cf27cf4529d7809
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 (May)
Pages: 1687-1693

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:5:p:1687-1693
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Sohbet Karbuz & Adusei Jumah, 1995. "Cointegration and commodity arbitrage," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 235-243.
  2. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
  3. Masih, A. Mansur M. & Masih, Rumi, 2002. "Propagative causal price transmission among international stock markets: evidence from the pre- and postglobalization period," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 63-91.
  4. Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "Testing for Panel Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2005:12, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  5. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
  6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  7. M. McAleer & J. M. Sequeira, 2004. "Efficient estimation and testing of oil futures contracts in a mutual offset system," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(13), pages 953-962.
  8. Chen, Li-Hsueh & Finney, Miles & Lai, Kon S., 2005. "A threshold cointegration analysis of asymmetric price transmission from crude oil to gasoline prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 233-239, November.
  9. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
  10. John Sequeira & Michael McAleer, 2000. "A market-augmented model for SIMEX Brent crude oil futures contracts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 543-552.
  11. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2008. "Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 497-505, November.
  12. Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  13. Grasso, Margherita & Manera, Matteo, 2007. "Asymmetric error correction models for the oil-gasoline price relationship," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 156-177, January.
  14. Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
  15. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Cointegration Of Stock Markets Between New Zealand, Australia And The G7 Economies: Searching For Co-Movement Under Structural Change," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 231-247, 09.
  16. Juncal Cuñado & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, . "Do Oil Price Shocks Matter? Evidence For Some Europesan Countries," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 01-02, FEDEA.
  17. Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 233.
  18. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  19. Patrick J. Wilson & Richard Gerlach & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2003. "Potential Diversification Benefits In The Presence Of Unknown Structural Breaks: An Australian Case Study," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 442-453, December.
  20. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  21. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  22. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:5:p:1687-1693. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.