Asymmetric error correction models for the oil-gasoline price relationship
The existing literature on price asymmetries does not systematically investigate the sensitivity of the empirical results to the choice of a particular econometric specification. This paper fills this gap by providing a detailed comparison of the three most popular models designed to describe asymmetric price behaviour, namely asymmetric ECM, autoregressive threshold ECM and ECM with threshold cointegration. Each model is estimated on a common monthly dataset for the gasoline markets of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK over the period 1985-2003. All models are able to capture the temporal delay in the reaction of retail prices to changes in spot gasoline and crude oil prices, as well as some evidence of asymmetric behaviour. However, the type of market and the number of countries which are characterized by asymmetric oil-gasoline price relations vary across models. The asymmetric ECM yields some evidence of asymmetry for all countries, mainly at the distribution stage. The threshold ECM strongly rejects the null hypothesis of symmetric price behaviour, particularly in the case of France and Germany. Finally, the ECM with threshold cointegration finds long-run asymmetry for each country in the reaction of retail prices to oil price changes.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Radchenko, Stanislav, 2005.
"Oil price volatility and the asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases,"
Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 708-730, September.
- Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Oil price volatility and the asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases," Industrial Organization 0408001, EconWPA.
- Bettendorf, Leon & van der Geest, Stephanie A. & Varkevisser, Marco, 2003. "Price asymmetry in the Dutch retail gasoline market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 669-689, November.
- Lance J. Bachmeier & James M. Griffin, 2003. "New Evidence on Asymmetric Gasoline Price Responses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 772-776, August.
- Duffy-Deno, Kevin T., 1996. "Retail price asymmetries in local gasoline markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 81-92, April.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's threshold estimation and testing results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00091, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "TAR: RATS procedure to estimate a threshold autoregression, tests for threshold effect," Statistical Software Components RTS00209, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Davis, Michael C & Hamilton, James D, 2004.
"Why Are Prices Sticky? The Dynamics of Wholesale Gasoline Prices,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 17-37, February.
- Michael C. Davis & James D. Hamilton, 2003. "Why Are Prices Sticky? The Dynamics of Wholesale Gasoline Prices," NBER Working Papers 9741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bacon, Robert W., 1991. "Rockets and feathers: the asymmetric speed of adjustment of UK retail gasoline prices to cost changes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 211-218, July.
- Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998.
"Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-11, July.
- Enders, Walter & Granger, C. W. J., 1998. "Unit Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff General Research Papers 1388, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Reilly, Barry & Witt, Robert, 1998.
"Petrol price asymmetries revisited,"
Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 297-308, June.
- Barry Reilly & Robert Witt, 1996. "Petrol Price Asymmetries Revisited," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 89, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Sichel, D.E., 1988.
"Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look,"
85, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- Ronald Johnson, 2002. "Search Costs, Lags and Prices at the Pump," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 33-50, February.
- Severin Borenstein & Andrea Shepard, 1996.
"Sticky Prices, Inventories, and Market Power in Wholesale Gasoline Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
5468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Severin Borenstein & Andrea Shepard, 2002. "Sticky Prices, Inventories, and Market Power in Wholesale Gasoline Markets," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 33(1), pages 116-139, Spring.
- Severin Borenstein & Andrea Shepard, 1996. "Sticky Prices, Inventories, and Market Power in Wholesale Gasoline Markets," Working Papers _001, University of California at Berkeley, Haas School of Business.
- Cook, Steven & Holly, Sean & Turner, Paul, 1999. "The power of tests for non-linearity: the case of Granger-Lee asymmetry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 155-159, February.
- Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S145-59, Supplemen.
- Severin Borenstein & A. Colin Cameron, 1992.
"Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?,"
NBER Working Papers
4138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Severin Borenstein & A. Colin Cameron & Richard Gilbert, 1997. "Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 305-339.
- Kirchgassner, Gebhard & Kubler, Knut, 1992. "Symmetric or asymmetric price adjustments in the oil market : An empirical analysis of the relations between international and domestic prices in the Federal Republic of Germany, 1972-1989," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 171-185, July.
- Hansen Bruce E., 1997.
"Inference in TAR Models,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,
De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
- Tom Doan, . "THRESHTEST: RATS procedure to perform Hansen's Test for Threshold Break," Statistical Software Components RTS00210, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Jeffrey D. Karrenbrock, 1991. "The behavior of retail gasoline prices: symmetric or not?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 19-29.
- Asplund, Marcus & Eriksson, Rickard & Friberg, Richard, 1997.
"Price adjustments by a gasoline retail chain,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
194, Stockholm School of Economics.
- J.M. Ian S. Salas, 2002. "Asymmetric Price Adjustments in a Deregulated Gasoline Market," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 39(1), pages 38-71, June.
- Radchenko, Stanislav, 2005. "Lags in the response of gasoline prices to changes in crude oil prices: The role of short-term and long-term shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 573-602, July.
- Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine Yücel, 1998. "Crude oil and gasoline prices: an asymmetric relationship?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q 1, pages 2-11.
- Godby, Rob & Lintner, Anastasia M. & Stengos, Thanasis & Wandschneider, Bo, 2000.
"Testing for asymmetric pricing in the Canadian retail gasoline market,"
Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 349-368, June.
- Godby, R. & Stengos, T. & Wandsschneider, B., 1997. "Testing for Asymmetric Pricing in the Canadian Retail Gasoline Market," Working Papers 1997-4, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992.
"Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
- Kaufmann, Robert K. & Laskowski, Cheryl, 2005. "Causes for an asymmetric relation between the price of crude oil and refined petroleum products," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1587-1596, August.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 2000.
"Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,"
Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
- M. Galeotti & A. Lanza & M. Manera, 2001.
"Rockets and feathers revisited: an international comparison on European gasoline markets,"
Working Paper CRENoS
200112, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
- Galeotti, Marzio & Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2003. "Rockets and feathers revisited: an international comparison on European gasoline markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 175-190, March.
- Andrew Eckert, 2002. "Retail price cycles and response asymmetry," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 52-77, February.
- Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992.
9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Steven Cook & Sean Holly & Paul Turner, 1999. "DHSY revisited: the role of asymmetries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(7), pages 775-778.
- Steven Cook, 1999. "Nonsymmetric error correction revisited," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(7), pages 467-470.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:35:y:2007:i:1:p:156-177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.