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Rockets and feathers meet Joseph: Reinvestigating the oil-gasoline asymmetry on the international markets

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  • Ladislav Kristoufek
  • Petra Lunackova

Abstract

We reinvestigate the "rockets and feathers" effect between retail gasoline and crude oil prices in a new framework of fractional integration, long-term memory and borderline (non-)stationarity. The most frequently used error-correction model is examined in detail and we find that the prices return to their equilibrium value much more slowly than would be typical for the error-correction model. Such dynamics is usually referred to as "the Joseph effect". The standard procedure is shown to be troublesome and we introduce three new tests to investigate possible asymmetry in the price adjustment to equilibrium under these complicated time series characteristics. On the dataset of seven national gasoline prices, we report that apart from Belgium, there is no asymmetry found. The proposed methodology is not limited to the gasoline and crude oil case but it can be utilized for any asymmetric adjustment to equilibrium analysis.

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  • Ladislav Kristoufek & Petra Lunackova, 2014. "Rockets and feathers meet Joseph: Reinvestigating the oil-gasoline asymmetry on the international markets," Papers 1407.5466, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1407.5466
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    Cited by:

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    3. Bagnai, Alberto & Mongeau Ospina, Christian Alexander, 2018. "Asymmetries, outliers and structural stability in the US gasoline market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 250-260.
    4. Taner SEKMEN & Seher Gülşah TOPUZ, 2021. "Asymmetric Oil Price and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Turkish Oil-Gasoline Markets," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 74-93, June.
    5. Bagnai, Alberto & Mongeau Ospina, Christian Alexander, 2016. "“Asymmetric asymmetries” in Eurozone markets gasoline pricing," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 89-99.
    6. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2019. "Are the crude oil markets really becoming more efficient over time? Some new evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 253-263.
    7. Ladislav Kristoufek & Karel Janda & David Zilberman, 2015. "Co-movements of Ethanol Related Prices: Evidence from Brazil and the USA," CAMA Working Papers 2015-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Palencia-González, Francisco J. & Navío-Marco, Julio & Juberías-Cáceres, Gema, 2020. "Analysis of brand influence in the rockets and feathers effect using disaggregated data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Karol Szomolanyi & Martin Lukacik & Adriana Lukacikova, 2022. "Estimation of asymmetric responses of U.S. retail fuel prices to changes in input prices based on a linear exponential adjustment cost approach," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 30(2), pages 757-779, June.
    10. Noel, Michael D. & Qiang, Hongjie, 2019. "The role of information in retail gasoline price dispersion," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 173-187.
    11. Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2016. "Price asymmetries in the European gasoline market," a/ Working Papers Series 1602, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    12. Chen, Chaoyi & Polemis, Michael & Stengos, Thanasis, 2019. "Can exchange rate pass-through explain the asymmetric gasoline puzzle? Evidence from a pooled panel threshold analysis of the EU," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-12.
    13. Bragoudakis, Zacharias & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2020. "Oil and pump prices: Testing their asymmetric relationship in a robust way," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Deltas, George & Polemis, Michael, 2020. "Estimating retail gasoline price dynamics: The effects of sample characteristics and research design," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    15. Kang, Wensheng & de Gracia, Fernando Perez & Ratti, Ronald A., 2019. "The asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 66-79.
    16. Zacharias Bragoudakis & Dimitrios Sideris, 2019. "Asymmetric price adjustment and the effects of structural reforms in a low income environment: the case of the gasoline market in Greece," Working Papers 274, Bank of Greece.
    17. Chen, Chaoyi & Polemis, Michael & Stengos, Thanasis, 2018. "On the Examination of Competition in the Petroleum Industry: A Pooled Panel Threshold Analysis," MPRA Paper 89671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Hamid Baghestani & Jorg Bley, 2020. "Do directional predictions of US gasoline prices reveal asymmetries?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(2), pages 348-360, April.
    19. Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & God'stime O. Eigbiremolen & Charles O. Manasseh & Ifeoma C. Mba, 2018. "Asymmetric Price Transmission and Rent‐seeking in Road Fuel Markets: A Comparative Study of South Africa and Selected Eurozone Countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 30(3), pages 278-290, September.
    20. Cook, Steven & Fosten, Jack, 2019. "Replicating rockets and feathers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 139-151.
    21. Ligia Topan & Miguel Jerez & Sonia Sotoca, 2020. "The impact of oil prices on products groups inflation: is the effect asymmetric?," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2020-02, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    22. Ogbuabor, Jonathan E. & Ukwueze, Ezebuilo R. & Mba, Ifeoma C. & Ojonta, Obed I. & Orji, Anthony, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on global retail energy markets: Are the markets responding to the fear of the unknown?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    23. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2016. "Asymmetric oil product pricing in India: Evidence from a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 314-328.
    24. Bentour, El Mostafa, 2015. "On the removal of energy products subsidies in an importing oil country: impacts on prices in Morocco," MPRA Paper 63635, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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