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Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the European Union emissions trading scheme: A high-frequency analysis

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  • Rittler, Daniel

Abstract

This paper models the relationship of European Union Allowance spot- and futures-prices within the second commitment period of the European Union emissions trading scheme. Based on high-frequency data, we analyze the transmission of information in first and second conditional moments. To reveal long-run price discovery, we compute common factor weights of Schwarz and Szakmary (1994) and information shares of Hasbrouck (1995) based on estimated coefficients of a VECM. To analyze the short-run dynamics, we perform Granger-causality tests. We identify the futures market to be the leader of the long-run price discovery process, whereas the informational role of the futures market increases over time. In addition, we employ a version of the UECCC-GARCH model as introduced by Conrad and Karanasos (2010) to analyze the volatility transmission structure. The volatility analysis indicates a close relationship between the volatility dynamics of both markets, whereas in particular we observe spillovers from the futures to the spot market. As a whole the investigation reveals that the futures market incorporates information first and then transfers the information to the spot market.

Suggested Citation

  • Rittler, Daniel, 2012. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the European Union emissions trading scheme: A high-frequency analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 774-785.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:3:p:774-785
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.09.009
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 emission allowances; Volatility transmission; Spot and futures prices; Causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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