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A Note on Cointegrating and Vector Autoregressive Relationships between CO2 allowances spot and futures prices

Author

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  • Julien Chevallier

    () (Université Paris Dauphine)

Abstract

This article investigates the cointegrating and vector autoregressive relationships in CO2 allowances spot and futures prices, valid for compliance under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Our empirical analysis yields to reject a cointegrating relationship between CO2 spot and futures prices, when accounting for the presence of a structural break in February 2009 (possibly due to the delayed impact of the ``credit crunch'' crisis). Then, a vector autoregression analysis (complemented by impulse response functions) indicates that futures prices are relevant for price formation in the spot market (while the opposite is not true). Overall, this analysis appears useful to making informed hedging decisions in the banking and finance industries, while allowing regulated utilities to relate futures prices to better forecasts of spot prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Chevallier, 2010. "A Note on Cointegrating and Vector Autoregressive Relationships between CO2 allowances spot and futures prices," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1564-1584.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00717
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vêlayoudom Marimoutou & Manel Soury, 2015. "Energy Markets and CO2 Emissions: Analysis by Stochastic Copula Autoregressive Model," AMSE Working Papers 1520, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France.
    2. Julien Chevallier, 2012. "Cointegration between carbon spot and futures prices: from linear to nonlinear modeling," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 160-181.
    3. Mizrach, Bruce, 2012. "Integration of the global carbon markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 335-349.
    4. Philip, Dennis & Shi, Yukun, 2015. "Impact of allowance submissions in European carbon emission markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 27-37.
    5. Rittler, Daniel, 2012. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the European Union emissions trading scheme: A high-frequency analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 774-785.
    6. Philip, Dennis & Shi, Yukun, 2016. "Optimal hedging in carbon emission markets using Markov regime switching models," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-15.
    7. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2014. "What explain the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 122-135.
    8. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugando, Mikel, 2015. "Downside risks in EU carbon and fossil fuel markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 17-35.
    9. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2014. "Energy prices and CO2 emission allowance prices: A quantile regression approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 201-206.
    10. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "An empirical analysis of energy cost pass-through to CO2 emission prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 149-156.
    11. Daskalakis, George, 2013. "On the efficiency of the European carbon market: New evidence from Phase II," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 369-375.
    12. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
    13. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Modeling EU allowances and oil market interdependence. Implications for portfolio management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 471-480.
    14. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2016. "Modeling persistence of carbon emission allowance prices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 221-226.
    15. Marcel Gorenflo, 2013. "Futures price dynamics of CO 2 emission allowances," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1025-1047, December.
    16. Kapoor, Nimisha & Ghosh, Sajal, 2014. "Long-term association between European and Indian markets on carbon credit price," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 656-662.
    17. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7936 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. George Daskalakis, Lazaros Symeonidis, Raphael N. Markellos, 2015. "Electricity futures prices in an emissions constrained economy: Evidence from European power markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    19. Schultz, Emma & Swieringa, John, 2014. "Catalysts for price discovery in the European Union Emissions Trading System," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 112-122.
    20. Vêlayoudom Marimoutou & Manel Soury, 2015. "Energy Markets and CO2 Emissions: Analysis by Stochastic Copula Autoregressive Model," Working Papers halshs-01148746, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 Price; Cointegration; VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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