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Multiple bubbles in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme

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  • Anna Creti

    (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Marc Joëts

Abstract

The European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the first large scale CO2 emission trading system in the world. Carbon allowances are financial assets, potentially vulnerable to the behavior of traders and investors. In fact, the carbon price has been quite volatile since the inception of the market, and it has recently hit very low values. However, to date, no work exists to evaluate whether volatility and price spikes are due to episodes of speculation and price bubbles. Our paper fills this gap. We use the recent approaches developed by Phillips and Yu (2010), Phillips et al. (2011), and Phillips et al. (2015a, 2015b) who propose a recursive right sided unit root approaches to detect and date-stamp mildly explosive behaviors and carbon market exuberance. We complement this methodology by using the wild bootstrap procedure by Gonçalves and Kilian (2004) to control for the heteroschedasticity of carbon price data. Analyzing the EU ETS front month contract price, from 2005 to 2014, we find different episodes of price bubbles. These episodes are not explained by similar behavior of the fundamentals but seem related to energy and environmental policy announcements. Our results can provide insightful policy implications in the context of the actual carbon market reform, as well as the implementation of stricter financial regulations rules to CO2 trading.
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Suggested Citation

  • Anna Creti & Marc Joëts, 2017. "Multiple bubbles in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme," Post-Print hal-01549809, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01549809
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01549809
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    4. Ayesha Liaqat & Mian Sajid Nazir & Iftikhar Ahmad & Hammad Hassan Mirza & Farooq Anwar, 2020. "Do stock price bubbles correlate between China and Pakistan? An inquiry of pre‐ and post‐Chinese investment in Pakistani capital market under China‐Pakistan Economic Corridor regime," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 323-335, July.
    5. Marina Friedrich & S'ebastien Fries & Michael Pahle & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2019. "Understanding the explosive trend in EU ETS prices -- fundamentals or speculation?," Papers 1906.10572, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    6. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2019. "What will China's carbon emission trading market affect with only electricity sector involvement? A CGE based study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 301-311.
    7. Friedrich, Marina & Mauer, Eva-Maria & Pahle, Michael & Tietjen, Oliver, 2020. "From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS," EconStor Preprints 196150, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Ayesha Liaqat & Mian Sajid Nazir & Iftikhar Ahmad, 2019. "Identification of multiple stock bubbles in an emerging market: application of GSADF approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 301-326, August.

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    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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