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Modelling the price spread between EUA and CER carbon prices

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  • Nazifi, Fatemeh

Abstract

This paper identifies factors impacting on the dynamics of the price spread between European Allowances (EUAs) and Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) by detecting changes in the structural relationship between them. While prior studies have assumed a fixed structural relationship, this paper analyses the dynamic evolution of the price spread by employing a time-varying parameter analysis using daily data from March 2008 to September 2011. The analysis reveals that a lack of competitive conditions in markets, access constraints on the use and the availability of CERs, regulatory changes regarding both EUAs and CERs, and uncertainty surrounding CERs can explain a significant portion of the price spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Nazifi, Fatemeh, 2013. "Modelling the price spread between EUA and CER carbon prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 434-445.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:56:y:2013:i:c:p:434-445
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.01.006
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    3. Federico Galán-Valdivieso & Elena Villar-Rubio & María-Dolores Huete-Morales, 2018. "The erratic behaviour of the EU ETS on the path towards consolidation and price stability," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 689-706, October.
    4. Hintermann, Beat & Peterson, Sonja & Rickels, Wilfried, 2014. "Price and market behavior in Phase II of the EU ETS," Kiel Working Papers 1962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Marc Gronwald & Beat Hintermann, 2016. "Explaining the EUA-CER Spread," CESifo Working Paper Series 5795, CESifo.
    6. Gavard, Claire & Kirat, Djamel, 2020. "Short-term impacts of carbon offsetting on emissions trading schemes: Empirical insights from the EU experience," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-058, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Gavard, Claire & Kirat, Djamel, 2018. "Flexibility in the market for international carbon credits and price dynamics difference with European allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 504-518.
    8. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2016. "Risk spillovers across the energy and carbon markets and hedging strategies for carbon risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 159-172.
    9. Medina, Vicente & Pardo, Ángel & Pascual, Roberto, 2014. "The timeline of trading frictions in the European carbon market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 378-394.
    10. Kapoor, Nimisha & Ghosh, Sajal, 2014. "Long-term association between European and Indian markets on carbon credit price," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 656-662.
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    12. Ari, İzzet, 2013. "Voluntary emission trading potential of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 910-919.
    13. Naegele, Helene, 2015. "Offset Credits in the EU Emissions Trading System : A Firm-Level Evaluation of Transaction Costs," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112817, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Vlad-Cosmin Bulai & Alexandra Horobet & Oana Cristina Popovici & Lucian Belascu & Sofia Adriana Dumitrescu, 2021. "A VaR-Based Methodology for Assessing Carbon Price Risk across European Union Economic Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-21, December.
    15. Zhang, Chen & Yang, Yu & Yun, Po, 2020. "Risk measurement of international carbon market based on multiple risk factors heterogeneous dependence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    16. Misato Sato & Marta Ciszawska & Timothy Laing, 2016. "Demand for offsetting and insetting in the EU Emissions Trading System," GRI Working Papers 237, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    17. Helene Naegele, 2018. "Offset Credits in the EU ETS: A Quantile Estimation of Firm-Level Transaction Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 70(1), pages 77-106, May.
    18. Naegele, Helene, 2018. "Offset Credits in the EU ETS: A Quantile Estimation of Firm-Level Transaction Costs," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 70(1), pages 77-106.
    19. Beat Hintermann & Marc Gronwald, 2019. "Linking with Uncertainty: The Relationship Between EU ETS Pollution Permits and Kyoto Offsets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(2), pages 761-784, October.
    20. Kanamura, Takashi, 2016. "Role of carbon swap trading and energy prices in price correlations and volatilities between carbon markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 204-212.
    21. Tang, Wenzhi & Du, Shaofu & Hu, Li & Wang, Bill & Zhu, Yangguang, 2022. "The effects of leadership in Clean Development Mechanism low-carbon operations," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    22. Djamel KIRAT & Claire GAVARD, 2020. "Short-term impacts of carbon offsetting on emissions trading schemes: empirical insights from the EU experience," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2821, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    23. Lyu, Chenyan & Scholtens, Bert, 2022. "Is the Global Carbon Market Integrated? Return and Volatility Connectedness in ETS Systems," Working Papers 7-2022, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics, revised 08 Jun 2022.
    24. Tan, Xue-Ping & Wang, Xin-Yu, 2017. "Dependence changes between the carbon price and its fundamentals: A quantile regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 306-325.
    25. Rita Sousa & Luís Aguiar-Conraria, 2014. "Dynamics of CO2 price drivers," NIPE Working Papers 02/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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