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Flexibility in the Market for International Carbon Credits and Price. Dynamics Difference with European Allowances

Author

Listed:
  • Claire Gavard

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Italy)

  • Djamel Kirat

    (Laboratoire d’Economie d’Orléans (LEO), Université d’Orléans, France)

Abstract

We analyze the price dynamics of European allowances and international carbon credits in the second phase of the European carbon market. We develop and use a model combining fundamental drivers associated with the demand for quotas by installations and risk-return considerations related to the financial nature of carbon permits. We estimate it with autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Although carbon permits present some characteristics of financial assets, we find that an increased volatility is not associated with an increased return. The price of allowances and credits are explained by similar factors. However, whereas the corresponding returns present comparable dynamics, the long-term relationships between the price of these two types of permits and their drivers differ significantly. While the price of allowances is demand-driven, we suggest the existence of a supply-side effect for credits, and explain it by the flexibility in the related market. The impact of the European economic activity is less visible on credits than on allowances. The price elasticity of allowances with regards to the coal and gas prices is negative in time periods of low economic activity while it is positive in the rest of the time. We suggest an explanation for this dynamics difference.

Suggested Citation

  • Claire Gavard & Djamel Kirat, 2015. "Flexibility in the Market for International Carbon Credits and Price. Dynamics Difference with European Allowances," Working Papers 2015.03, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2015.03
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hintermann, Beat, 2010. "Allowance price drivers in the first phase of the EU ETS," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-56, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Allowances International Credits; Emissions Trading; Power Sector; Time Series Analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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