IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Modeling and explaining the dynamics of European Union allowance prices at high-frequency

  • Conrad, Christian
  • Rittler, Daniel
  • Rotfuß, Waldemar

In this paper we model the adjustment process of European Union Allowance (EUA) prices to the releases of announcements at high-frequency controlling for intraday periodicity, volatility clustering and volatility persistence. We find that the high-frequency EUA price dynamics are very well captured by a fractionally integrated asymmetric power GARCH process. The decisions of the European Commission on second National Allocation Plans have a strong and immediate impact on EUA prices. On the other hand, our results suggest that EUA prices are only weakly connected to indicators about the future economic development as well as the current economic activity.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/36377/1/630177643.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 10-038.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:10038
Contact details of provider: Postal: L 7,1; D - 68161 Mannheim
Phone: +49/621/1235-01
Fax: +49/621/1235-224
Web page: http://www.zew.de/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Y. K. Tse, 1998. "The conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen-dollar exchange rate," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 49-55.
  2. Kang, Sang Hoon & Kang, Sang-Mok & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2009. "Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 119-125, January.
  3. Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Angel Pardo & Enric Valor, 2007. "CO2 Prices, Energy and Weather," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-92.
  4. Chevallier, Julien, 2009. "Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors: A view from the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 614-625, July.
  5. Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-1, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  6. Christian Conrad & Berthold R. Haag, 2006. "Inequality Constraints in the Fractionally Integrated GARCH Model," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(3), pages 413-449.
  7. Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W. & McKenzie, Michael D. & Mitchell, Heather, 2000. "A multi-country study of power ARCH models and national stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 377-397, June.
  8. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
  9. Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2009. "Intraday price formation and volatility in the European Union emissions trading scheme: an introductory analysis," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-018, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  10. Lo, Andrew W, 1991. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-313, September.
  11. Magnus Andersson & Lars Jul Overby & Szabolcs Sebestyén, 2009. "Which News Moves the Euro Area Bond Market?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 1-31, 02.
  12. Copeland, Thomas E, 1976. "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1149-68, September.
  13. Conrad, Christian & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zeng, Ning, 2011. "Multivariate fractionally integrated APARCH modeling of stock market volatility: A multi-country study," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 147-159, January.
  14. Yue-Jun Zhang & Yi-Ming Wei, 2009. "An overview of current research on EU ETS: Evidence from its operating mechanism and economic effect," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 3, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
  15. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1998. "Deutsche Mark-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 219-265, 02.
  16. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yudong & Huang, Dengshi, 2010. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility: Further evidence using GARCH-class models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1477-1484, November.
  17. Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Chèze, Benoît, 2009. "Emissions Compliances and Carbon Prices under the EU ETS: A Country Specific Analysis of Industrial Sectors," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 446-462, May.
  18. Christian Conrad, 2007. "Non-negativity Conditions for the Hyperbolic GARCH Model," KOF Working papers 07-162, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  19. Martin Martens & Yuan-Chen Chang & Stephen J. Taylor, 2002. "A Comparison of Seasonal Adjustment Methods When Forecasting Intraday Volatility," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 283-299.
  20. Paolella, Marc S. & Taschini, Luca, 2008. "An econometric analysis of emission allowance prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2022-2032, October.
  21. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
  22. Darrat, Ali F. & Rahman, Shafiqur & Zhong, Maosen, 2003. "Intraday trading volume and return volatility of the DJIA stocks: A note," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 2035-2043, October.
  23. Daskalakis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Modeling CO2 emission allowance prices and derivatives: Evidence from the European trading scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1230-1241, July.
  24. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  25. Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
  26. Laurent, Sebastien & Peters, Jean-Philippe, 2002. " G@RCH 2.2: An Ox Package for Estimating and Forecasting Various ARCH Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 447-85, July.
  27. Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
  28. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
  29. Rotfuß, Waldemar & Conrad, Christian & Rittler, Daniel, 2009. "The European Commission and EUA prices: a high-frequency analysis of the EC's decisions on second NAPs," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-045, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:10038. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.