IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps

  • Deniz Erdemlioglu
  • Sébastien Laurent
  • Christopher J. Neely

This chapter reviews the rapid advances in foreign exchange volatility modeling made in the last three decades. Academic researchers have sought to fit the three major characteristics of foreign exchange volatility: intraday periodicity, autocorrelation and discontinuities in prices. Early research modeled the autocorrelation in daily and weekly squared foreign exchange returns with ARCH/GARCH models. Increased computing power and availability of high-frequency data allowed later researchers to improve volatility and jumps estimates. Researchers also found it useful to incorporate information about periodic volatility patterns and macroeconomic announcements in their calculations. This article details these volatility and jump estimation methods, compares those methods empirically and provides some suggestions for further research.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2012/2012-008.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2012-008.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2012-008
Contact details of provider: Postal:
P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166

Fax: (314)444-8753
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
  2. Deschamps, Philippe J., 2011. "Bayesian Estimation of Generalized Hyperbolic Skewed Student GARCH Models," DQE Working Papers 16, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland, revised 09 Jun 2012.
  3. R. Tschernig, 1994. "Long Memory in Foreign Exchange Rates Revisited," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1994,46, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  4. Christian T. Brownlees & Giampiero Gallo, 2006. "Financial Econometric Analysis at Ultra–High Frequency: Data Handling Concerns," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2006_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
  5. Michel Beine & Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely & Franz C. Palm, 2007. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility, its continuous and jump components," Working Papers 2006-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wong, Clement Yuk-Pang, 2000. "A survey of market practitioners' views on exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 401-419, August.
  7. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  8. Alain Hecq & Sébastien Laurent & Franz C. Palm, 2011. "Common Intraday Periodicity," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 10(2), pages 325-353, 2012 20 1.
  9. David W. Berger & Alain P. Chaboud & Erik Hjalmarsson & Edward Howorka, 2006. "What drives volatility persistence in the foreign exchange market?," International Finance Discussion Papers 862, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent, 2002. "A New Class of Multivariate skew Densities, with Application to GARCH Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 5, Society for Computational Economics.
  11. Frömmel, Michael & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2008. "Order flows, news, and exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 994-1012, October.
  12. Tanseli Savaser, 2007. "Exchange Rate Response to Macro News: Through the Lens of Microstructure," Department of Economics Working Papers 2007-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  13. Michel Beine & Sébastien Laurent & Christelle Lecourt, 2002. "Accounting for conditional leptokurtosis and closing days effects in FIGARCH models of daily exchange rates," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10443, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  14. Andersen, Torben G. & Dobrev, Dobrislav & Schaumburg, Ernst, 2012. "Jump-robust volatility estimation using nearest neighbor truncation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 75-93.
  15. Michael McKenzie & Heather Mitchell, 2002. "Generalized asymmetric power ARCH modelling of exchange rate volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 555-564.
  16. Christian Francq & Jean-Michel Zakoïan, 2009. "Bartlett's formula for a general class of nonlinear processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 449-465, 07.
  17. Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "Jumps, cojumps and macro announcements," Working Papers 2007-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  18. Leonardo Bartolini & Linda S. Goldberg & Adam Sacarny, 2008. "How economic news moves markets," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Aug).
  19. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Dobrev, Dobrislav, 2007. "No-arbitrage semi-martingale restrictions for continuous-time volatility models subject to leverage effects, jumps and i.i.d. noise: Theory and testable distributional implications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 125-180, May.
  20. repec:cor:louvrp:-2135 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Christian Conrad & Berthold R. Haag, 2006. "Inequality Constraints in the Fractionally Integrated GARCH Model," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(3), pages 413-449.
  22. Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Francesco Violante, 2010. "On the Forecasting Accuracy of Multivariate GARCH Models," Cahiers de recherche 1021, CIRPEE.
  23. Neely, Christopher J., 1999. "Target zones and conditional volatility: The role of realignments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 177-192, April.
  24. Weiss, Andrew A., 1986. "Asymptotic Theory for ARCH Models: Estimation and Testing," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 107-131, April.
  25. Francq, Christian & Roy, Roch & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2005. "Diagnostic Checking in ARMA Models With Uncorrelated Errors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 532-544, June.
  26. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
  27. Michael McAleer & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2006. "Realized volatility: a review," Textos para discussão 531 Publication status: F, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  28. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  29. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  30. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
  31. DeGennaro, Ramon P. & Shrieves, Ronald E., 1997. "Public information releases, private information arrival and volatility in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 295-315, December.
  32. William Melick & Gabriele Galati, 1999. "Perceived central bank intervention and market expectations: an empirical study of the yen/dollar exchange rate, 1993 - 96," BIS Working Papers 77, Bank for International Settlements.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2012-008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.