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Central bank authorities’ beliefs about foreign exchange intervention

  • Christopher J. Neely

This paper presents the results of a survey of monetary authorities with respect to foreign exchange intervention. The survey offers evidence on new issues that would otherwise be difficult to investigate, such as response times, non-foreign exchange factors in intervention and profitability. The survey also reveals new evidence on previously studied issues, such as channels of effectiveness. Respondents disagreed with predominant views on intervention and volatility and common arguments against intervention. Exchange rate regimes explain central bank beliefs about important aspects of intervention, including factors that lead to detection of secret interventions and the potential profitability of intervention. ; Earlier title: Authorities' beliefs about foreign exchange intervention: getting back under the hood

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2006-045.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Publication status: Published in Journal of International Money and Finance, February 2008, 27(1), pp. 1-25
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2006-045
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  1. Rasmus Fatum & Michael Hutchison, 2003. "Effectiveness of Official Daily Foreign Exchange Market Intervention Operations in Japan," NBER Working Papers 9648, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Rasmus Fatum & Michael R. King, 2005. "Rules versus Discretion in Foreign Exchange Intervention: Evidence from Official Bank of Canada High-Frequency Data," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-06, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2005. "The effects of Japanese foreign exchange market interventions on the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-39.
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  8. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 2005-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2007. "Central bank intervention with limited arbitrage," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 249-260.
  10. Klein, Michael W., 1993. "The accuracy of reports of foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 644-653, December.
  11. Andreas Fischer, 2003. "Reuters News Reports versus Official Interventions: A Cautionary Warning," Working Papers 03.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  12. Leahy, Michael P, 1995. "The profitability of US intervention in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 823-844, December.
  13. Vitale, Paolo, 1999. "Sterilised central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 245-267, December.
  14. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael, 1999. "Is Intervention a Signal of Future Monetary Policy? Evidece from the Federal Funds Futures Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 54-69, February.
  15. Sweeney, Richard J., 1997. "Do central banks lose on foreign-exchange intervention? A review article," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1667-1684, December.
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  18. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 185-214, April.
  19. Fischer, Andreas M., 2003. "Measurement error and the profitability of interventions: a closer look at SNB transactions data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 137-142, October.
  20. Pasquariello, Paolo, 2002. "Uncertainty of trading rules in currency markets: an application of non-parametric bootstrapping," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 107-133, April.
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  22. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "On the long-term effectiveness of exchange rate communication and interventions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 146-167, February.
  23. Mark P. Taylor, 2005. "Official Foreign Exchange Intervention As A Coordinating Signal In The Dollar-Yen Market," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 73-82, 02.
  24. Vitale, Paolo, 2003. "Foreign exchange intervention: how to signal policy objectives and stabilise the economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 841-870, May.
  25. Rasmus Fatum, 2005. "Daily Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention: Evidence from Official Bank of Canada Data," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-07, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  26. Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: The Australian Case," NBER Working Papers 9062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Rasmus Fatum, 2002. "Post-Plaza intervention in the DEM/USD exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 556-567, August.
  28. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Fischer, Andreas M & Zurlinden, Mathias, 1999. "Exchange Rate Effects of Central Bank Interventions: An Analysis of Transaction Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 662-76, October.
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