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The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention, GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection

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  • Eric Hillebrand

    (Louisiana State University)

  • Gunther Schnabl

    (Tubingen University)

Abstract

We study the impact of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on the volatility of the yen/dollar exchange rate since the early 1990s based on a GARCH framework. Using daily intervention data provided by the Japanese Ministry of Finance, we show that the success of interventions varies over time. Measured on the total sample between 1991 and 2003 the estimation results for the impact of foreign exchange intervention on the yen/dollar exchange rate volatility are inconclusive. Sub-dividing the sample into yearly sub-periods and into intervention clusters suggests a structural break. From 1991 up to the late 1990s Japanese foreign exchange intervention seems to have increased the volatility of the yen/dollar exchange rate. In contrast in the new millennium, Japa- nese foreign exchange intervention is associated with less exchange rate volatility. Non-arbitrary segmentation by change point detection leads to similar results. The evidence in favour of recent successful Japanese foreign exchange intervention is line with theoretical evidence which implies successful intervention is the case of un-sterilized intervention.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Hillebrand & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention, GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 7, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc04:7
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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Humala & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2010. "Foreign exchange intervention and exchange rate volatility in Peru," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(15), pages 1485-1491.
    2. repec:zbw:rwirep:0428 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 685-718.
    4. Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "International Capital Markets, Macroeconomic Stability, and Exchange Rate Stabilization in the CIS and East Asia," International Finance 0410009, EconWPA, revised 01 Mar 2005.
    5. Schnabl, Gunther & Danne, Christian, 2005. "The Changing Role of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate for Japanese Monetary Policy," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 290, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
    6. Takatoshi Ito, 2005. "The Exchange Rate In The Japanese Economy: The Past, Puzzles, And Prospects," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-38.
    7. Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Central bank authorities' beliefs about foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-25, February.
    8. Morel, Christophe & Teïletche, Jérôme, 2008. "Do interventions in foreign exchange markets modify investors' expectations? The experience of Japan between 1992 and 2004," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-231, March.
    9. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Market Interventions and the $-¥ Exchange Rate in the Long-Run," Ruhr Economic Papers 0428, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2015. "Foreign exchange market interventions and the $-¥ exchange rate in the long run," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(38), pages 4037-4055, August.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/12956 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jer-Yuh Wan & Chung-Wei Kao, 2010. "Effects of Japanese intervention on yen/dollar exchange rate volatility: a conditional jump dynamics approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 367-373.
    13. Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Gustavo Silva Araujo & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2015. "As Atuações Cambiais do Banco Central Afetam as Expectativas de Mercado?," Working Papers Series 393, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    14. Kim, Suk-Joong, 2007. "Intraday evidence of efficacy of 1991-2004 Yen intervention by the Bank of Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 341-360, October.
    15. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    16. Habibi Reza, 2011. "A note on approximating distribution functions of cusum and cusumsq tests," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-10, January.
    17. Schnabl, Gunther, 2005. "International Capital Markets and Informal Dollar Standards in the CIS and East Asia," HWWA Discussion Papers 326, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    18. Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2005. "The effects of Japanese foreign exchange market interventions on the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-39.
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    21. Suardi, Sandy, 2008. "Central bank intervention, threshold effects and asymmetric volatility: Evidence from the Japanese yen-US dollar foreign exchange market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 628-642, July.
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    23. Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2004. "On the determinants of "small" and "large" foreign exchange market interventions: The case of the Japanese interventions in the 1990s," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 231-243.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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