IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ucy/cypeua/0202.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Detecting Multiple Breaks in Financial Market Volatility Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Andreou
  • Eric Ghysels

Abstract

The paper evaluates the performance of several recently proposed tests for structural breaks in conditional variance dynamics of asset returns. The tests apply to the class of ARCH and SV type processes as well as data-driven volatility estimators using high-frequency data. In addition to testing for the presence of breaks, the statistics identify the number and location of multiple breaks. We study the size and power of the new test for detecting breaks in the second conditional variance under various realistic univariate heteroskedastic models, change-point hypotheses and sampling schemes. The paper concludes with an empirical analysis using data from the stock and FX markets for which we find multiple breaks associated with the Asian and Russian financial crises. These events resulted in changes in the dynamics of volatility of asset returns in the samples prior and post the breaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2001. "Detecting Multiple Breaks in Financial Market Volatility Dynamics," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 0202, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucy:cypeua:0202
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.econ.ucy.ac.cy/RePEc/papers/0202.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-542, May.
    3. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    4. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 33-55, March.
    5. Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms & Charles S. Bos, 1999. "Long memory and level shifts: Re-analyzing inflation rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 427-449.
    6. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-059, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    7. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 315-352, June.
    9. Geweke, John, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 269-271, July.
    10. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    11. Van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1999. "Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in the Presence of Outliers," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(2), pages 217-235, April.
    12. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    13. Fabienne Comte & Eric Renault, 1998. "Long memory in continuous‐time stochastic volatility models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 291-323, October.
    14. Thomas Mikosch & Catalin Starica, 2004. "Long range dependence effects and ARCH modelling," Econometrics 0412004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    16. Andreou, Elena & Ghysels, Eric, 2002. "Rolling-Sample Volatility Estimators: Some New Theoretical, Simulation, and Empirical Results," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 363-376, July.
    17. Foster, Dean P & Nelson, Daniel B, 1996. "Continuous Record Asymptotics for Rolling Sample Variance Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 139-174, January.
    18. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    19. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
    20. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1142-1151, December.
    21. Engle, Robert F & Smith, Aaron, 1998. "Stochastic Permanent Breaks," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt99v0s0zx, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    22. Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 261-268, July.
    23. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    24. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & van der Leij, M.J. & Paap, R., 2001. "Modeling and forecasting outliers and level shifts in absolute returns," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-34, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    25. Robinson, P M, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 276-279, July.
    26. Lee, Sang-Won & Hansen, Bruce E., 1994. "Asymptotic Theory for the Garch(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 29-52, March.
    27. van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1999. "Testing for ARCH in the Presence of Additive Outliers," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 539-562, Sept.-Oct.
    28. Robert F. Engle & Aaron D. Smith, 1999. "Stochastic Permanent Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 553-574, November.
    29. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 280-310, April.
    30. Wouter Denhaan & Andrew T. Levin, 1996. "VARHAC Covariance Matrix Estimator (GAUSS)," QM&RBC Codes 64, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
    31. Lumsdaine, Robin L, 1996. "Consistency and Asymptotic Normality of the Quasi-maximum Likelihood Estimator in IGARCH(1,1) and Covariance Stationary GARCH(1,1) Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 575-596, May.
    32. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    33. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    34. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "Stationarity and the existence of moments of a family of GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 109-117, January.
    35. Breidt, F. Jay & Crato, Nuno & de Lima, Pedro, 1998. "The detection and estimation of long memory in stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 325-348.
    36. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    37. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
    38. Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 1997. "The incremental volatility information in one million foreign exchange quotations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 317-340, December.
    39. Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 280-283, July.
    40. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    41. Christian Francq & Jean-Michel Zakoïan, 2000. "Estimating Stochastic Volatility Models : A New Approach Based on ARMA Representations," Working Papers 2000-47, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    42. Ho, Hwai-Chung Jeff & Lin, Chien-fu, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 272-272, July.
    43. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
    44. Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 268-269, July.
    45. Kokoszka, Piotr & Leipus, Remigijus, 1998. "Change-point in the mean of dependent observations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 385-393, November.
    46. Francq, Christian & Zakoïan, Jean-Michel, 2000. "Estimating Weak Garch Representations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(5), pages 692-728, October.
    47. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280, May.
    48. Baillie, Richard T, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 273-276, July.
    49. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    50. Hsieh, David A, 1991. "Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-1877, December.
    51. Yao, Yi-Ching, 1988. "Estimating the number of change-points via Schwarz' criterion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 181-189, February.
    52. Granger, Clive W.J. & Hyung, Namwon, 1999. "Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4d60t4jh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    53. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-234, April.
    54. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    55. Clive W.J. Granger & Namwon Hyung, 2013. "Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(2), pages 739-764, November.
    56. Carrasco, Marine & Chen, Xiaohong, 2002. "Mixing And Moment Properties Of Various Garch And Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 17-39, February.
    57. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    58. Marc Lavielle & Eric Moulines, 2000. "Least‐squares Estimation of an Unknown Number of Shifts in a Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 33-59, January.
    59. Robinson, P. M., 1991. "Testing for strong serial correlation and dynamic conditional heteroskedasticity in multiple regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 67-84, January.
    60. Granger, Clive W. J. & Ding, Zhuanxin, 1996. "Varieties of long memory models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 61-77, July.
    61. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    62. Chen, Chung & Tiao, George C, 1990. "Random Level-Shift Time Series Models, ARIMA Approximations, and Level-Shift Detection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 83-97, January.
    63. Lajos Horváth, 1997. "Detection of Changes in Linear Sequences," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 49(2), pages 271-283, June.
    64. Horváth, Lajos & Kokoszka, Piotr & Steinebach, Josef, 1999. "Testing for Changes in Multivariate Dependent Observations with an Application to Temperature Changes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 96-119, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elena Andreou, 2004. "The Impact of Sampling Frequency and Volatility Estimators on Change-Point Tests," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 290-318.
    2. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2004. "Monitoring for Disruptions in Financial Markets," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-26, CIRANO.
    3. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, November.
    4. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Tests for Breaks in the Conditional Co-movements of Asset Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-59, CIRANO.
    5. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    6. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-059, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    7. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2005. "Volatility forecasting," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    8. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    9. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Mehmet Balcilar & Aysit Tansel, 2013. "International Labour Force Participation Rates By Gender: Unit Root Or Structural Breaks?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65, pages 142-164, May.
    10. McAleer, Michael & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2008. "A multiple regime smooth transition Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 104-119, November.
    11. Lu, Yang K. & Perron, Pierre, 2010. "Modeling and forecasting stock return volatility using a random level shift model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 138-156, January.
    12. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Mehmet Balcilar & Aysit Tansel, 2013. "International Labour Force Participation Rates By Gender: Unit Root Or Structural Breaks?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65, pages 142-164, May.
    13. Morana, Claudio & Beltratti, Andrea, 2004. "Structural change and long-range dependence in volatility of exchange rates: either, neither or both?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 629-658, December.
    14. Granger, Clive W. J. & Hyung, Namwon, 2004. "Occasional structural breaks and long memory with an application to the S&P 500 absolute stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 399-421, June.
    15. Hillebrand, Eric & Schnabl, Gunther & Ulu, Yasemin, 2009. "Japanese foreign exchange intervention and the yen-to-dollar exchange rate: A simultaneous equations approach using realized volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 490-505, July.
    16. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2006. "Predicting volatility: getting the most out of return data sampled at different frequencies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 59-95.
    17. Jonathan Wright, 2002. "Log-Periodogram Estimation Of Long Memory Volatility Dependencies With Conditionally Heavy Tailed Returns," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 397-417.
    18. Dominique Guegan, 2005. "How can we Define the Concept of Long Memory? An Econometric Survey," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 113-149.
    19. Hillebrand, Eric, 2005. "Neglecting parameter changes in GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 121-138.
    20. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2002. "Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 668-681, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    change-point; break dates; ARCH; high-frequency data.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucy:cypeua:0202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ucy.ac.cy/econ/?lang=en .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.