Long memory and regime switching
The theoretical and empirical econometric literatures on long memory and regime switching have evolved largely independently, as the phenomena appear distinct. We argue, in contrast, that they are intimately related, and we substantiate our claim in several environments, including a simple mixture model, Engle and Lee's (1999) stochastic permanent break model, and Hamilton's (1989) Markov switching model. In particular, we show analytically that stochastic regime switching is easily confused with long memory, even asymptotically, so long as only a small' amount of regime switching occurs, in a sense that we make precise. A Monte Carlo analysis supports the relevance of the theory and produces additional insights.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1999.
"A simple nonlinear time series model with misleading linear properties,"
Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 161-165, February.
- Granger, Clive W.J. & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "A simple nonlinear time series model with misleading linear properties," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 237, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Comte, F. & Renault, E., 1996.
"Long Memory in Continuous Time Stochastic Volatility Models,"
96.406, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
- Fabienne Comte & Eric Renault, 1998. "Long memory in continuous-time stochastic volatility models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 291-323.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994.
"Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1998. "A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages 47-75.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Balke, Nathan S. & Fomby, Thomas B., 1992.
9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Cioczek-Georges, R. & Mandelbrot, B. B., 1995. "A class of micropulses and antipersistent fractional Brownian motion," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 1-18, November.
- Hidalgo, Javier & Robinson, Peter M., 1996. "Testing for structural change in a long-memory environment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 159-174, January.
- Lobato, I.N. & Savin, N.E., 1996.
"Real and Spurious Long Memory Properties of Stock Market Data,"
96-07, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 261-268, July.
- I.N. Lobato & N.E. Savin, 1996. "Real and Spurious Long Memory Properties of Stock Market Data," Econometrics 9605004, EconWPA, revised 26 Sep 1996.
- Allan Timmermann, 1999.
"Moments of Markov Switching Models,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp323, Financial Markets Group.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Engle, Robert F & Smith, Aaron, 1998.
"Stochastic Permanent Breaks,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt99v0s0zx, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Diebold & Rudebusch, "undated".
"Measuring Business Cycle: A Modern Perspective,"
_061, University of Pennsylvania.
- Xiaohong Chen & Lars P. Hansen & Marine Carrasco, 2008.
"Nonlinearity and Temporal Dependence,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1652, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Xiaohong Chen & Lars P. Hansen & Marine Carrasco, 2009. "Nonlinearity and Temporal Dependence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1652R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Xiaohong Chen & Lars P. Hansen & Marine Carrasco, 2009. "Nonlinearity and Temporal Dependence," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-17, CIRANO.
- Chen, Xiaohong & Hansen, Lars Peter & Carrasco, Marine, 2008. "Nonlinearity and Temporal Dependence," Working Papers 48, Yale University, Department of Economics.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988.
"Long memory and persistence in aggregate output,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
- Chambers, Marcus J, 1998.
"Long Memory and Aggregation in Macroeconomic Time Series,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1053-1072, November.
- Chambers, Marcus J, 1995. "Long Memory and Aggregation in Macroeconomic Time Series," Economics Discussion Papers 2766, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
- Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
- Rydén, Tobias & Teräsvirta, Timo & Åsbrink, Stefan, 1996.
"Stylized Facts of Daily Return Series and the Hidden Markov Model,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
117, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Tobias Rydén & Timo Teräsvirta & Stefan Åsbrink, 1998. "Stylized facts of daily return series and the hidden Markov model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 217-244.
- William R. Parke, 1999. "What Is Fractional Integration?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 632-638, November.
- Balke, Nathan S. & Fomby, Thomas B., 1991. "Shifting trends, segmented trends, and infrequent permanent shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 61-85, August.
- Clive W.J. Granger & Namwon Hyung, 2013.
"Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory,"
Annals of Economics and Finance,
Society for AEF, vol. 14(2), pages 739-764, November.
- Granger, Clive W.J. & Hyung, Namwon, 1999. "Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4d60t4jh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:105:y:2001:i:1:p:131-159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.