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Stochastic Permanent Breaks

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  • Robert F. Engle
  • Aaron D. Smith

Abstract

This paper bridges the gap between processes where shocks are permanent and those with transitory shocks by formulating a process in which the long-run impact of each innovation is time-varying and stochastic. In the stochastic permanent breaks (STOPBREAK) process, frequent transitory shocks are supplemented by occasional permanent shifts. Consistency and asymptotic normality of quasi-maximum-likelihood estimates is established, and locally best hypothesis tests of the null of a random walk are developed. The model is applied to relative prices of pairs of stocks and significant test statistics result. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Suggested Citation

  • Robert F. Engle & Aaron D. Smith, 1999. "Stochastic Permanent Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 553-574, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:81:y:1999:i:4:p:553-574
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