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On the persistence and volatility in European, American and Asian stocks bull and bear markets

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña

    (Navarra Center for International Development)

  • Olanrewaju L. Shittu
  • OlaOluwa S. Yaya

Abstract

In this paper we examine the statistical properties of several stock market indices in Europe, the US and Asia by means of determining the degree of dependence in both the level and the volatility of the processes. In the latter case, we use the squared returns as a proxy for the volatility. We also investigate the cyclical pattern observed in the data and in particular, if the degree of dependence changes depending on whether there is a bull or a bear period. We use fractional integration and GARCH specifications. The results indicate that the indices are all nonstationary I(1) processes with the squared returns displaying a degree of long memory behavior. With respect to the bull and bear periods, we do not observe a systematic pattern in terms of the degree of persistence though for some of the indices (FTSE, Dax, Hang Seng and STI) there is a higher degree of dependence in both the level and the volatility during the bull periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Olanrewaju L. Shittu & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2013. "On the persistence and volatility in European, American and Asian stocks bull and bear markets," NCID Working Papers 12/2013, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    • Handle: RePEc:nva:unnvaa:wp12-2013
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    2. Pınar Kaya Soylu & Mustafa Okur & Özgür Çatıkkaş & Z. Ayca Altintig, 2020. "Long Memory in the Volatility of Selected Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-21, May.
    3. Mohamed Chikhi & Claude Diebolt & Tapas Mishra, 2019. "Measuring Success: Does Predictive Ability of an Asset Price Rest in 'Memory'? Insights from a New Approach," Working Papers 11-19, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    4. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Infante, Juan & Martín-Valmayor, Miguel Angel, 2023. "Persistence and long run co-movements across stock market prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 347-357.
    5. Ruipeng Liu & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Do Bivariate Multifractal Models Improve Volatility Forecasting in Financial Time Series? An Application to Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," Working Papers 201728, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Sakiru A. Solarin & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2024. "Testing for Persistence in German Green and Brown Stock Market Indices," CESifo Working Paper Series 11207, CESifo.
    7. Mohamed CHIKHI & Claude DIEBOLT & Tapas MISHRA, 2019. "Does Predictive Ability of an Asset Price Rest in 'Memory'? Insights from a New Approach," Working Papers of BETA 2019-43, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    8. José Antonio Núñez-Mora & Mario Iván Contreras-Valdez & Roberto Joaquín Santillán-Salgado, 2023. "Risk Premium of Bitcoin and Ethereum during the COVID-19 and Non-COVID-19 Periods: A High-Frequency Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-20, October.
    9. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2019. "The Changing Geopolitics in the Arab World: Implications of the 2017 Gulf Crisis for Business," Papers 1903.08076, arXiv.org.
    10. Mohamed CHIKHI & Claude DIEBOLT & Tapas MISHRA, 2019. "Memory that Drives! New Insights into Forecasting Performance of Stock Prices from SEMIFARMA-AEGAS Model," Working Papers 07-19, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    11. Geoffrey Ngene & Ann Nduati Mungai & Allen K. Lynch, 2018. "Long-Term Dependency Structure and Structural Breaks: Evidence from the U.S. Sector Returns and Volatility," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(02), pages 1-38, June.
    12. Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2014. "The persistence and asymmetric volatility in the Nigerian stock bull and bear markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 463-469.
    13. Rangan Gupta & Mark Wohar, 2019. "The role of monetary policy uncertainty in predicting equity market volatility of the United Kingdom: evidence from over 150 years of data," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 138-146.
    14. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2020. "Arab geopolitics in turmoil: Implications of Qatar-Gulf crisis for business," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 100-119.
    15. Elie Bouri & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta & David Roubaud, 2019. "Modelling long memory volatility in the Bitcoin market: Evidence of persistence and structural breaks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 412-426, January.
    16. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Christophe André & Rangan Gupta & Tsangyao Chang & Omid Ranjbar, 2016. "The Feldstein--Horioka puzzle in South Africa: A fractional cointegration approach," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 978-991, October.
    17. Refk Selmi & Youssef Errami & Mark E Wohar, 2020. "Are U.S. industries resilient in dealing with trade uncertainty ? The case of U.S.-China trade war," Post-Print hal-02523186, HAL.
    18. Luis Alberiko & OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Olarenwaju I. Shittu, 2015. "Fractional integration and asymmetric volatility in european, asian and american bull and bear markets. Applications to high frequency stock data," NCID Working Papers 07/2015, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    19. Bentes, Sónia R., 2014. "Measuring persistence in stock market volatility using the FIGARCH approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 408(C), pages 190-197.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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