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The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle in South Africa: A Fractional Cointegration Approach

Author

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  • Luis A Gil-Alana

    (University of Navarra, Faculty of Economics and NCID, Edificio Amigos, E-31080 Pamplona, Spain)

  • Christophe André

    (Economics Department, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris, France)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Tsangyao Chang

    (Department of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan)

  • Omid Ranjbar

    (Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade, Tehran, Iran)

Abstract

The Feldstein-Horioka (FH) puzzle, that is the strong correlation between saving and investment in a world where obstacles to capital mobility are limited, has been studied extensively since it was exposed in 1980. Even though the theoretical and empirical literature has examined many of its potential causes, the puzzle persists. This paper aims at shedding further light on the issue by investigating the relationship between saving and investment in South Africa since 1946 using fractional integration and cointegration techniques to account for high persistence in the series. We find evidence of fractional cointegration between saving and investment, indicating some degree of persistence in the gap between the two variables. We also find a structural break in saving and investment ratios to GDP around 1980, which roughly coincides with the start of a financial deregulation process in South Africa. While fractional cointegration holds before the break, it does not thereafter. In other words, while the FH puzzle is observed before the start of financial deregulation, it subsequently disappears. This suggests financial deregulation may have loosened the link between saving and investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis A Gil-Alana & Christophe André & Rangan Gupta & Tsangyao Chang & Omid Ranjbar, 2015. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle in South Africa: A Fractional Cointegration Approach," Working Papers 201501, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201501
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    2. Ibrahim Bakari Hassan, 2016. "International capital mobility in West Africa: A panel cointegration approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1256023-125, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle; Long-Memory; Fractional Cointegration; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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