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2021
- 05/2021 The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in border closures in many countries and a sharp reduction in overall international mobility. However, this disruption of legal pathways to migration has raised concerns that potential migrants may turn to irregular migration routes as a substitute. This paper examines how the pandemic has changed intentions to migrate from The Gambia, the country with the highest pre-pandemic per-capita irregular migration rates in Africa. A large-scale panel survey conducted in 2019 and 2020 is used to compare changes in intentions to migrate to Europe and to neighboring Senegal. The data show that the pandemic has reduced the intention to migrate to both destinations, with approximately one-third of young males expressing less intention to migrate. The largest reductions in migration intentions are for individuals who were unsure of their intent pre- pandemic, and for poorer individuals who are no longer able to afford the costs of migrating at a time when these costs have increased and their remittance income has fallen. This paper also introduces the methodology of priming experiments to the study of migration intentions, by randomly varying the salience of the COVID-19 pandemic before eliciting intentions to migrate. There is no impact of this added salience, which appears to be because knowledge of the virus, while imperfect, was already enough to inform migration decisions. Nevertheless, despite these decreases in intentions, the overall desire to migrate the backway to Europe remains high, highlighting the need for legal migration path- ways to support migrants and divert them from the risks of backway migration
by Tijan L Bah, Catia Batista, Flore Gubert, David McKenzie - 04/2021 Detection of trend types in temperature data, by distinguishing between deterministic and stochastic trends, has important implications for understanding climate change. The Unit root tests (URTs) have been widely used for detecting trend types, but they do not consider the possibility of fractional integration and its influences. In this study, we detected the trend types of surface air temperature observed during the period 1960– 2019 at 558 stations across China, by considering fractional integration. The whole period was divided into three sub-periods by two structural breakpoints (denoted as SBP1 and SBP2). The fractional differencing parameter d was estimated by the Local Whittle (LW) function, and then the Phillips-Perron (PP), Kwiatkowski-Phillips- Schmidt-Shim, (KPSS) and Zivot and Andrews (ZA) tests were used to detect trend types in these temperature data. The results indicated that the de-seasoned monthly temperature (DMT) series are fractionally integrated and, thus, exhibit long-range dependence characteristics, which have significant influence on the estimation of trend slopes and detection of trend types. Compared with the LW function, the ordinary least squares yielded biased estimation of trend slopes, as it cannot handle the long-range dependence of DMT series, which generates pseudo trends and contaminates true trends of temperature. The DMT series with weak long-range dependence or anti-persistent characteristic were accurately detected as deterministic trends during 1960–SBP1, SBP1–SBP2, SBP2–2019. However, the DMT series with strong long-range dependence were detected as stochastic trend by KPSS test during SBP1–2019 and 1960–2019, which results from the oscillatory components from long-range dependence. Considering the fractional integration of time series and URTs together, therefore, is more appropriate to reliably detect trend types in temperature data. Following this, temperature over short periods in China were detected as having deterministic trends, but those at long periods were detected as having a combination of long-range dependence and deterministic trends
by Xinxin Li,Yan-Fang Sang, Bellie Sivakumar, Luis A. Gil-Alana - 03/2021 This paper looks at the level of persistence in the temperature anomalies series of 114 European cities. Once this level of persistence has been identified, the time trend coefficients are estimated and the results indicate that most of the series examined display positive trends, supporting thus climate warming. Moreover, the results obtained confirm the hypothesis that long-memory behaviour cannot be neglected in the study of temperatures time series, changing therefore, the estimated effect of global warming
by Jacopo Lenti, Luis A. Gil-Alana - 02/2021 Liquidity constraints and free post-secondary education. Evidence from Colombia
by Luis Fernando Gamboa, Jaime Millan-Quijano - 01/2021 Parental Human Capital Investment Responses to Children’s Disability
by Anastasia Terskaya
2020
- 05/2020 The Political Economy of Inequality, Mobility and Redistribution
by Ignacio P. Campomanes - 04/2020 Trade Relationships, Bargaining and Export Dynamics
by Mirko Abbritti, Ivan Kim, Tommaso Trani - 03/2020 The Ocean and Early-Childhood Mortality
by Alex Armand, Ivan Kim Taveras - 02/2020 The Effect of Blackouts on Households’ Electrification Status: evidence from Kenya
by Raúl Bajo-Buenestado - 01/2020 Oiling up the field. Forced internal displacement and the expansion of palm oil in Colombia
by Jaime Millan-Quijano, Sebastian Pulgarin
2019
- 01/2019 Does Information Break the Political Resource Curse? Experimental Evidence from Mozambique
by Alex Armand, Alexander Coutts, Pedro C. Vicente,Inês Vilela
2018
- 05/2018 Financial Access Under the Microscope
by Camelia Minoiu - 04/2018 Oil Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Nigeria
by Arinze Nwokolo - 03/2018 Multiple Equilibria in Open Economy Models with Collateral Constraints: Overborrowing Revisited
by Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, MartÃn Uribe - 02/2018 Maternal Mortality and Women’s Political Participation
by Joseph Flavian Gomes - 01/2018 Relationship-specificity, incomplete contracts, and the pattern of trade: a comment on the role of natural resources
by Raúl Bajo-Buenestado
2017
- 04/2017 The Health Costs of Ethnic Distance: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
by Joseph Flavian Gomes - 03/2017 The effect of oil spills on infant mortality: Evidence from Nigeria
by Anna Bruederle & Roland Hodler - 02/2017 Demand Drops and Innovation Investments: Evidence from the Great Recession in Spain
by Alex Armand & Pedro Mendi - 01/2017 The Reach of Radio: Defection Messaging and Armed Group Behavior
by Alex Armand & Paul Atwell & Joseph Gomes
2016
- 09/2016 Gender Bias in Education During Conflict Evidence from Assam
by Prakarsh Singh & Sutanuka Roy - 08/2016 "Face the Bullet, Spare the Rod?" Evidence from the Aftermath of the Shining Path Insurgency
by Prakarsh Singh & Alvaro Morales - 07/2016 The Geography of Linguistic Diversity and the Provision of Public Goods
by Joseph Flavian Gomes & Klaus Desmet & Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín - 06/2016 The Effect of Gender-Targeted Conditional Cash Transfers on Household Expenditures: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment
by Alex Armand & Orazio Attanasio & Pedro Carneiro & Valérie Lechene - 05/2016 Trends and Cycles in Historical Gold and Silver Prices
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Rangan Gupta - 04/2016 The persistence of air pollution in four mega-cities of China
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Carlos Pestana Barros & Zhongfei Chen - 03/2016 Trade flows and trade specialisation: the case of China
by Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Anamaria Sova & Robert Sova - 02/2016 Spillovers between food and energy prices and structural breaks
by Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alanoud Al-Maadid & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo - 01/2016 Impact of caregiver incentives on child health: evidence from an experiment with Anganwadi workers in India
by Prakarsh Singh & William A. Masters
2015
- 12/2015 African Growth, Non-Linearities and Strong Dependence: An Empirical Study
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Borja Balprad & Guglielmo Maria Caporale - 11/2015 Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Unions in Africa: A Fractional Integration and Cointegration Analysis
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Borja Balprad & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Hector Carcel - 10/2015 Managing Innovation under Competitive Pressure from Informal Producers Managing Innovation under Competitive Pressuire from Informal Producers
by Pedro Mendi & Rodrigo Costamagna - 09/2015 Monetary Policy in a Developing Country: Loan applications and Real effects
by Camelia Minoui & Charles Abuka & Ronnie K. Alinda & Jose-Luis Peydro & Andrea F. Presbitero - 08/2015 Measuring and Changing Control: Women's Empowerment and Targeted Transfers
by Alex Armand & Pedro Carneiro & Ingvild Almas & Orazio Attanasio - 07/2015 Fractional integration and asymmetric volatility in european, asian and american bull and bear markets. Applications to high frequency stock data
by Luis Alberiko & OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Olarenwaju I. Shittu - 06/2015 Persistence of precious metal prices: a fractional integration approach with structural breaks
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Shinhye Chang & Mehmet Balcilar & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta - 05/2015 Performance Pay and Malnutrition: Evidence from an Experiment targeting Child Malnutrition in West Bengal
by Prakarsh Singh & Sandip Mitra - 04/2015 The Effect of Civil Conflict on Child Abuse: Evidence from Peru
by Prakarsh Singh & Alvaro Morales - 03/2015 Who wears the trousers in the family? Intra-household resource control, subjective expectations and human capital investment
by Alex Armand - 02/2015 Are Parental Perceived Returns to Schooling predicting Future Schooling Decisions? Evidence from Macedonia
by Alex Armand - 01/2015 Financial development, institutions and poverty alleviation: an empirical analysis
by Alessandra Cepparulo & Juan C. Cuestas & Maurizio Intarglia
2014
- 05/2014 Do institutions alleviate poverty? An empirical analysis
by Maurizio Intarglia & Juan Carlos Cuestas - 04/2014 The Relationship Between Oil Prices and the Nigerian Stock Market, an Analysis Based on Fractional Integration and Cointegration
by Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa Simon Yaya - 03/2014 Competitive Pressure and Innovation in Vertically Differentiated Markets
by Pedro Mendi - 02/2014 The influence of services on firm productivity in Sub-saharan Africa
by Godfrey Madigu - 01/2014 Long memory in Angolan macroeconomic series: mean reversion versus explosive behaviour
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Carlos Pestana Barros & Guglielmo Maria Caporale
2013
- 12/2013 On the persistence and volatility in European, American and Asian stocks bull and bear markets
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Olanrewaju L. Shittu & OlaOluwa S. Yaya - 11/2013 Modelling volatility persistence and asymmetry: a study on selected Indian non-ferrous metals markets
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Trilochan Tripathy - 10/2013 Foreign direct investment in the Asian economies
by Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Carlos Pestana Barros & Bruno Damasio - 09/2013 Cooperation with the police in a diverse society: the case of South Africa
by Alvaro Morcillo - 08/2013 Network Effects and Infrastructure Productivity in Developing Countries
by Bertrand Candelon & Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin - 07/2013 Banking Consolidation in Nigeria, 2000-2010
by Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Carlos Pestana Barros - 06/2013 Business Cycles, International Trade and Capital Flows: Evidence from Latin America
by Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi - 05/2013 Persistence, long memory and seasonality in Kenyan tourism series
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Fernando Pérez de Gracia & Robert Mudida - 04/2013 Multinational corporations as channels for international technology transfer: evidence from the South African innovation survey
by Nazeem Mustapha & Pedro Mendi - 03/2013 Return migration to South Africa: reasons and socioeconomic profile
by Alvaro Morcillo & Rashmi Bhat - 02/2013 Convergence of inflationary shocks: evidence from the Caribbean
by Juan C. Cuestas & Carlyn Dobson - 01/2013 Testing for persistence with breaks and outliers in South African house prices
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta
2012
- 12/2012 Liscensing Policies in North-South Technology Transfers
by Rafael Moner-Colonques & Jose J. Semperes-Monerris - 11/2012 A non-linear approach with long range dependence based on Chebyshev polynomials
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Juan C. Cuestas - 10/2012 Testing the PPP Hypothesis in the Sub-Saharan Countries
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Guiglielmo Maria Caporale - 09/2012 Testing the Marshall-Lerner condition in Kenya
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Guiglielmo Maria Caporale & Robert Mudida - 08/2012 Privatization in a polluting industry in the presence of foreign competition
by Bouwe R. Dijkstra & Anuj J. Mathew & Arijiy Mukherjee - 07/2012 Natural resources, volatility, and inclusive growth perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa
by Rabah Arezki & Mustapha K. Nabili - 06/2012 Nominal exchange rates in Kenya. Are shocks transitory or permanent? An empirical investigation based on fractional integration
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Robert Mudida - 05/2012 Violence and the market for food. Evidence from Kenya
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Prakarsh Singh - 03/2012 Investigating the oil price exchange rate nexus: evidence from Africa
by Simeon Coleman & Juan C. Cuestas & Estefania Mourelle - 02/2012 What drives the global rush?
by Rabah Arezki & Klaus Deininger & Harris Selod - 01/2012 Resource windfalls, macroeconomic stability and growth: the role of political institutions
by Rabah Arezki & Kirk Hamilton & Kazim Kazimov
2011
- 10/2011 Interest rate dynamics in Kenya
by Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña - 09/2011 Business cycle fluctuations-macroeconomic shocks-development aid
by Era Dabla-Norris & Camelia Minoiu & Luis Felipe Zanna - 08/2011 Empirical aspects of capital flight in Kenya, 1970-2009
by Robert Mudida - 07/2011 Commodity windfalls, polarization and net foreign assets: panel evidence on the voracity effect
by Rabah Arezki & Markus Brückner - 06/2011 Volatility spillovers and contagion from mature and emerging stock markets
by John Beirne & Guiglielmo Maria Caporale & Marianne Schulze-Ghattas & Nicola Spagnolo - 05/2011 The relative volatility of commodity prices: a reappraisal
by Rabah Arezki & Daniel Lederman & Hongyan Zhao - 04/2011 Long memory, strcutural breaks and mean shifts in the inflation rates in Nigeria
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Olanrewaju L. Shittu & OlaOluwa S. Yaya - 03/2011 Is there asymmetric behaviour in African inflation? A non-linear approach
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Juan C. Cuestas & Estefania Mourelle - 02/2011 Is information power? Using cellphones during an election campaign
by Pedro Vicente & Paul Collier & Jenny C. Aker - 01/2011 Food prices and political instability
by Rabah Arezki & Markus Brückner
2010
- 09/2010 Support for decentralization, quality of politicians and development
by Facundo Albornoz & Antonio Cabrales - 08/2010 Landmines
by Jean-Louis Arcand & Aude-Sophie Rodella-Boitreaud & Matthias Rieger - 07/2010 Indicators of employment discrimination at provincial level and their use for preventing intergroup social conflict
by Alvaro Morcillo - 06/2011 Tourism in South Africa. Time series persistence and the nature of shocks. Are they transitory or permament?
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña - 05/2011 Inflation in South Africa. A time series view across sectors using long range dependence
by Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña - 04/2010 Privatization Under Regulatory Lobbying
by Laura Valderrama - 03/2010 Exchange rate uncertainty and international technology transfer
by Rodrigo Costamagna - 02/2010 Intellectual property rights, Southern innovation and foreign direct investment
by Anuj J. Mathew & Arijit Mukherjee - 01/2011 Mean reversion and long memory in African stock market prices
by Emmanuel Anoruo & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña