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Investigating the oil price exchange rate nexus: evidence from Africa

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  • Simeon Coleman
  • Juan C. Cuestas
  • Estefania Mourelle

Abstract

In this paper we aim to provide further insides into the importance of real oil price as a determinant of real exchange rates for a pool of African countries. While this relationship has been explored substantially for many industrialised economies, African countries have received little attention. By means of cointegration techniques and nonlinear dynamics we find that, for some of these countries, shocks in the real price of oil are particularly important in determining the real exchange rates, even in the long run. These results would be of interest for policymakers in order to deal more effectively with exchange rate policy decisions, aiming at promoting economic growth in the area.

Suggested Citation

  • Simeon Coleman & Juan C. Cuestas & Estefania Mourelle, 2012. "Investigating the oil price exchange rate nexus: evidence from Africa," NCID Working Papers 03/2012, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    • Handle: RePEc:nva:unnvaa:wp03-2012
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    4. Pershin, Vitaly & Molero, Juan Carlos & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2016. "Exploring the oil prices and exchange rates nexus in some African economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 166-180.
    5. Bing‐Yue Liu & Qiang Ji & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ying Fan, 2021. "Dynamic dependence and extreme risk comovement: The case of oil prices and exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2612-2636, April.
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    7. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2011:i:072 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jungho Baek, 2021. "The role of crude oil prices in the movement of the Indonesian rupiah: a quantile ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 975-994, November.
    9. Riane de Bruyn & Rangan Gupta & Renee van Eyden, 2013. "Forecasting The Rand-Dollar And Rand-Pound Exchange Rates Using Dynamic Model Averaging," Working Papers 201307, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Hyeyoen Kim & Doojin Ryu, 2013. "Forecasting Exchange Rate from Combination Taylor Rule Fundamental," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S4), pages 81-92, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; Real Exchange Rates; Cointegration; Nonlinearities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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