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Exchange Rates and Oil Prices

Listed author(s):
  • Robert A. Amano
  • Simon van Norden

The authors document a robust and interesting relationship between the real domestic price of oil and real effective exchange rates for Germany, Japan and the United States. They explain why they think the real oil price captures exogenous terms-of-trade shocks and why such shocks could be the most important factor determining real exchange rates in the long run.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 9509001.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 22 Sep 1995
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:9509001
Note: 28 printed pages, compressed PostScript file. Other recent Bank of Canada working papers are listed on the last page of this report.
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  2. James G. MacKinnon, 1992. "Approximate Asymptotic Distribution Functions for Unit Roots and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 861, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Jordi Galí & Richard Clarida, 1993. "Sources of real exchage rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Economics Working Papers 66, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 1994.
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  7. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Working Papers 2966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 94-19, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  9. Huizinga, John, 1987. "An empirical investigation of the long-run behavior of real exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 149-214, January.
  10. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
  11. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
  12. Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  13. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
  14. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  15. Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan, 1990. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 942, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  16. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
  17. Nicholas Sarantis, 1994. "The monetary exchange rate model in the long run: An empirical investigation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(4), pages 698-711, December.
  18. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-143, January.
  19. Selahattin Dibooglu, 1995. "Real Disturbances, Relative Prices, and Purchasing Power Parity," International Finance 9502002, EconWPA.
  20. Lastrapes, William D, 1992. "Sources of Fluctuations in Real and Nominal Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 530-539, August.
  21. Meese, Richard, 1990. "Currency Fluctuations in the Post-Bretton Woods Era," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 117-134, Winter.
  22. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  23. Golub, Stephen S, 1983. "Oil Prices and Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 576-593, September.
  24. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
  25. Cushman, David O. & Sang Sub Lee & Thorgeirsson, Thorsteinn, 1996. "Maximum likelihood estimation of cointegration in exchange rate models for seven inflationary OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 337-368, June.
  26. ENGLE, Robert F. & HENDRY, David F. & RICHARD, Jean-François, "undated". "Exogeneity," CORE Discussion Papers RP 516, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Engle, Robert F & Hendry, David F & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1983. "Exogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 277-304, March.
  27. Loungani, Prakash, 1986. "Oil Price Shocks and the Dispersion Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 536-539, August.
  28. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
  29. Kenneth Rogoff, 1991. "Oil, productivity, government spending and the real yen-dollar exchange rate," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 91-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  30. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
  31. Paul R. Krugman, 1980. "Oil and the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 0554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Mussa, M.L., 1990. "Exchange Rates in Theory and in Reality," Princeton Studies in International Economics 179, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  33. Campbell, John & Clarida, Richard, 1987. "The Dollar and Real Interest Rates," Scholarly Articles 3221495, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  34. Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February.
  35. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  36. Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 1990. "On the Equilibrium Yen-Dollar Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 576-583, June.
  37. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lothian, James R., 1993. "The response of exchange rates to permanent and transitory shocks under floating exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 563-586, December.
  38. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  39. repec:bla:restud:v:57:y:1990:i:1:p:99-125 is not listed on IDEAS
  40. Paul Krugman, 1983. "Oil Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 259-284 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Michael Dotsey & Max Reid, 1992. "Oil shocks, monetary policy, and economic activity," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Jul, pages 14-27.
  42. Park, J.Y. & Ogaki, M., 1991. "Inference in Cointegrated Models Using VAR Prewhitening to Estimate Shortrun Dynamics," RCER Working Papers 281, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  43. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
  44. Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1989. "The Full Information Maximum Likelihood Procedure for Inference on Cointegration - with Applications," Discussion Papers 89-11, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  45. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
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