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Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate

  • Jose De Gregorio
  • Holger C. Wolf

The paper examines the effects of terms of trade movements and productivity differentials across sectors on the behavior of the real exchange rate. We develop a simple model of a small open economy producing exportable and nontradable goods and consuming importable and nontradable goods and present empirical evidence for a sample of fourteen OECD countries. The evidence broadly supports the predictions of the model, namely that faster productivity growth in the tradable relative to the nontradable sector and an improvement in the terms of trade induce a real appreciation.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4807.

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Date of creation: Jul 1994
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4807
Note: IFM
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  1. Neary, Peter, 1988. "Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 210-15, March.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld., 1993. "Model Trending Real Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-011, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. De Gregorio, Jose & Giovannini, Alberto & Wolf, Holger C., 1994. "International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1225-1244, June.
  4. David K. Backus & Gregor W. Smith, 1992. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Dynamic Exchange Economies with Nontraded Goods," Working Papers 92-7, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  5. F. J. M. Meyer-zu-Schlochtern, 1988. "An International Sectoral Data Base for Thirteen OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 57, OECD Publishing.
  6. Marion, Nancy P., 1984. "Nontraded goods, oil price increases and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 29-44, February.
  7. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Relative Price Movements in Dynamic General Equilibrium Models of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 4243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Traded Goods Consumption Smoothing and the Random Walk Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 10(2), pages 1-29, November.
  9. Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May.
  10. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1986. "Fiscal Policies in the World Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 564-94, June.
  11. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  12. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1981. "Real Interest Rates, Home Goods, and Optimal External Borrowing," NBER Working Papers 0779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1993. "Model Trending Real Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233187, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
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