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Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate

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  • Jose De Gregorio
  • Holger C. Wolf

Abstract

The paper examines the effects of terms of trade movements and productivity differentials across sectors on the behavior of the real exchange rate. We develop a simple model of a small open economy producing exportable and nontradable goods and consuming importable and nontradable goods and present empirical evidence for a sample of fourteen OECD countries. The evidence broadly supports the predictions of the model, namely that faster productivity growth in the tradable relative to the nontradable sector and an improvement in the terms of trade induce a real appreciation.
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Suggested Citation

  • Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 94-19, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ste:nystbu:94-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neary, Peter, 1988. "Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 210-215, March.
    2. De Gregorio, Jose & Giovannini, Alberto & Wolf, Holger C., 1994. "International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1225-1244, June.
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    7. Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Traded Goods Consumption Smoothing and the Random Walk Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 10(2), pages 1-29, November.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld., 1993. "Model Trending Real Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-011, University of California at Berkeley.
    9. Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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