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Model Trending Real Exchange Rates

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  • Maurice Obstfeld.

Abstract

The multilateral real exchange rates of major industrial countries often contain deterministic time trends. This note develops a simple stochastic model of a small open economy with a deterministically trending real exchange rate. Real exchange rate trends are caused by differential productivity growth in tradables and nontradables. Although the model assumes complete price flexibility, it can produce a correlation between the real exchange rate and the international real interest-rate differential similar to the one that arises in sticky-price overshooting models dominated by monetary shocks.
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Suggested Citation

  • Maurice Obstfeld., 1993. "Model Trending Real Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-011, University of California at Berkeley.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucb:calbcd:c93-011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "A Marshall Plan for the East: Options for 1993," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233185, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    2. Menzie Chinn & Jeffrey Frankel, 1991. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies," NBER Working Papers 3807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May.
    4. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    6. Robert Summers & Alan Heston, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 327-368.
    7. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1991. "Structural Determinants of Real Exchange Rates and National Price Levels: Some Empirical Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 325-334, March.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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