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Political Stabilization Cycles in High Inflation Economies

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  • Ernesto Stein and Jorge Streb.

Abstract

High inflation economies do not always exhibit smooth inflationary processes; sometimes stop-go cycles of inflation are observed. This paper relates these stop-go episodes to a political cycle: Governments can defer inflation until after elections to increase their chances of being reelected. This is modelled as a two-period game of incomplete information where voters try to pick the most competent candidate, and inflation (which is used as a signal of competency) can be lowered by the government in the short run through foreign debt accumulation.
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Suggested Citation

  • Ernesto Stein and Jorge Streb., 1994. "Political Stabilization Cycles in High Inflation Economies," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-039, University of California at Berkeley.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucb:calbcd:c94-039
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "Is Japan Creating a Yen Bloc in East Asia and the Pacific?," NBER Chapters,in: Regionalism and Rivalry: Japan and the United States in Pacific Asia, pages 53-88 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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