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Monetary regime choices for a semi-open country

  • Jeffrey A. Frankel

This paper considers regime choices facing relatively small, trade-oriented, financially liberalizing, rapidly growing countries such as the East Asian NICs. The classic question of fixed versus flexible exchange rates is considered first. Of the many factors that determine whether the advantages of fixed rates justify the loss of monetary independence, all depend on the openness of the country. One example is the advantage that stable exchange rates promote trade; the magnitude of this effect is estimated in this paper. Another example is the advantage that a fixed exchange rate can serve as a nominal anchor to monetary policy. The second half of the paper reviews the recent literature on monetary rules versus discretion, and then considers four alternative candidates for the nominal anchor for monetary policy: the money supply, nominal GNP, price level, and exchange rate. It is argued that nominal GNP dominates the money supply in general, and dominates the other two candidates under certain conditions.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Pacific Basin Working Paper Series with number 93-02.

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Date of creation: 1993
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:93-02
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  1. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Macroeconomic Adjustment Under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton Woods Float: An Impulse-Response Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Helmut Reisen & Axel Trotsenburg, 1988. "Should the Asian NICs peg to the yen?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 23(4), pages 172-177, July.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1992. "Is Japan creating a yen bloc in East Asia and the Pacific?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 92-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Shantayanan Devarajan & Dani Rodrik, 1991. "Do the Benefits of Fixed Exchange Rates Outweigh Their Costs? The Franc Zone in Africa," NBER Working Papers 3727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
  6. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "One Money or Many? On Analyzing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233213, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
  7. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Edwards, Sebastian, 1989. "The macroeconomics of populism in Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 316, The World Bank.
  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1991. "The Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP Rule in an Open Economy," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7xz9d77c, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  9. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1993. "Sterilization of Money Inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-024, University of California at Berkeley.
  11. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
  12. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "Introduction to "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America"," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 1-4 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  14. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government," NBER Working Papers 2855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Takatoshi Ito, 1989. "Is the Bank of Japan a Closet Monetarist? Monetary Targeting in Japan, 1978-1988," NBER Working Papers 2879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Norbert Funke., 1994. "A Two-Country Analysis of International Targeting of Nominal GNP," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-035, University of California at Berkeley.
  17. Takagi, Shinji, 1988. "A basket peg policy: Operational issues for developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 271-279, February.
  18. Sung Y. Kwack, 1992. "Monetary control, sterilization, and exchange rate policy: Korea during the period of current account surpluses, 1986-1990," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
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