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Integracion Y Vulnerabilidad Externa En Colombia

Author

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  • Cristina Fern�ndez
  • Andr�s Gonz�lez

Abstract

El presente art�culo busca establecer las primeras bases para analizar la viabilidad de una coordinaci�n de pol�ticas macroecon�micas entre Colombia y otros pa�ses de la regi�n. En particular, el trabajo busca determinar cu�les pa�ses tienen un ciclo econ�mico similar al de nuestro pa�s y establecer las causas de estas similitudes. El esclarecimiento de estos dos interrogantes permitir� anticipar algunos choques externos y suavizar su efecto sobre la econom�a mediante un conjunto de pol�ticas, que puede evolucionar hasta el punto de constituir un programa de pol�ticas macroecon�micas coordinadas. En efecto, a pesar de que nuestras econom�as no se encuentren a�n preparadas para enfrentar un proceso de coordinaci�n de pol�ticas, la r�pida integraci�n comercial y financiera en la regi�n, puede hacer insostenible su estabilidad sin un programa de coordinaci�n macroecon�mica. El principal resultado de este trabajo est� en el hallazgo de una gran similitud entre el ciclo colombiano, el brasile�o y el costarricense. La alta correlaci�n que existe entre los t�rminos de intercambio de estos pa�ses y los moderados niveles de comercio entre las tres econom�as2, sugieren el hecho de que estas similitudes est�n relacionadas con las exportaciones cafeteras3. Sin embargo, es importante anotar que a partir de los setenta, el caf� no es un producto particularmente importante para Brasil y por lo tanto, se hace necesario encontrar otras causas que est�n determinando la similitud entre el ciclo econ�mico colombiano y el brasile�o.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Fern�ndez & Andr�s Gonz�lez, 2000. "Integracion Y Vulnerabilidad Externa En Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2901, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002901
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rodrigo Suesc�n M., 1997. "Commodity booms,dutch disease,and real business cycles in a small open economy: The case of coffee in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2164, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    3. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart. & Vicent R. Reinhart, 1991. "Fluctuaciones del producto y choques monetarios: evidencia colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 10(20), pages 53-85, December.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart. & Vicent R. Reinhart, 1991. "Fluctuaciones del producto y choques monetarios: evidencia colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 10(20), pages 53-85, December.
    6. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "Monetary regime choices for a semi-open country," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 93-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    8. Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas, 1998. "Temporary And Permanent Components Of Colombia'S Outpout," Borradores de Economia 3549, Banco de la Republica.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
    2. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo, 2001. "Expansions and Contractions in Some Latin American Countries: A view Throught Non-Linear Models," Borradores de Economia 186, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2005. "Depressions In The Colombian Economic Growth During The Xx Century:A Markov Switching Regime Model," Borradores de Economia 2274, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Wilman Gómez & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2004. "Un "Choque" del Activo Externo Neto y el Ciclo Económico Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 285, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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