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Integración y vulnerabilidad externa en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Cristina Fernández
  • Andrés González G.

Abstract

“El presente artículo busca establecer las primeras bases para analizar la viabilidad de una coordinación de políticas macroeconómicas entre Colombia y otros países de la región. En particular, el trabajo pretende determinar cuáles países tienen un ciclo económico similar al de nuestro país y establecer las causas de estas similitudes. El principal resultado de este trabajo está en el hallazgo de una gran similitud entre el ciclo colombiano, el brasileno y el costarricense. La alta correlación que existe entre los términos de intercambio de estos países y los moderados niveles de comercio entre las tres economías, sugieren el hecho de que estas similitudes están relacionadas con las exportaciones cafeteras. Otro resultado importante de este estudio es que el efecto de los términos de intercambio sobre las tres economías seleccionadas se encuentra rezagado en uno o dos anos. Este artículo sigue la línea del trabajo realizado por Cárdenas, Correa, Echavarría y Rodríguez (1999), pero no se restringe al Pacto Andino. La extensión del estudio a otros países de América Latina es muy importante para el caso colombiano, porque el ciclo colombiano se encuentra muy ligado a países como Brasil y Costa Rica que no pertenecen a la Comunidad Andina. El artículo se encuentra estructurado en seis secciones: la sección dos presenta la metodología utilizada para medir ciclos económicos y una descripción del ciclo económico colombiano; la tres analiza los determinantes del ciclo económico colombiano y los determinantes externos del mismo; la sección cuatro estudia la interdependencia del ciclo del PIB entre países, con énfasis en el caso colombiano; la cinco, pretende establecer las principales causas de correlación entre países; y la última sección presenta las conclusiones.”

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Fernández & Andrés González G., 2000. "Integración y vulnerabilidad externa en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013467
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rodrigo Suescún M., 1997. "Commodity booms,dutch disease,and real business cycles in a small open economy: The case of coffee in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2164, Banco de la Republica.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
    2. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo, 2001. "Expansions and Contractions in Some Latin American Countries: A view Throught Non-Linear Models," Borradores de Economia 186, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2005. "Depressions In The Colombian Economic Growth During The Xx Century:A Markov Switching Regime Model," Borradores de Economia 2274, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Wilman Gómez & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2004. "Un "Choque" del Activo Externo Neto y el Ciclo Económico Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 285, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informes de Investigación; Ciclos Económicos; Integración Económica; Política Macroeconómica; Producto Interno Bruto; PIB;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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