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Commodity booms,dutch disease,and real business cycles in a small open economy: The case of coffee in Colombia

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  • Rodrigo Suescún M.

Abstract

Este documento propone un modelo multisectorial de crecimiento, dinámico y estocástico que integra la literatura de ciclo económico real con la de economías con sectores en bonanza y enfermedad holandesa para analizar fluctuaciones, asignación de recursos y los cambios en precios relativos en una economía (en desarrollo) pequeña y abierta, sujeta a choques en los términos de intercambio. Las predicciones del modelo son consistentes con el comportamiento agregado y sectorial a través del ciclo, típico de estas economías, y racionaliza como un resultado eficiente los síntomas de la enfermedad holandesa (desindustrialización temporal y apreciación de la tasa de cambio real) que son a veces considerados como repuestas subóptimas y como la justificación de la intervención gubernamental en países en desarrollo. Se encuentra además que las políticas de estabilización de precios de los bienes primarios no afectan significativamente el patrón cíclico de las fluctuaciones y que sus beneficios en términos de bienestar son de segundo orden.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Suescún M., 1997. "Commodity booms,dutch disease,and real business cycles in a small open economy: The case of coffee in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2164, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002164
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    Cited by:

    1. Cristina Fernández & Andrés González G., 2000. "Integración y vulnerabilidad externa en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    2. Carlos Esteban Posada Posada & Wilman Gómez, 2004. "Un choque del activo externo neto y el ciclo económico Colombiano 1994-2001," Borradores de Economia 3674, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Rashesh Shrestha & Ian Coxhead, 2018. "Can Indonesia Secure a Development Dividend from Its Resource Export Boom?," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(1), pages 1-24, January.
    4. Emmanuel K. K. Lartey, 2008. "Capital Inflows, Dutch Disease Effects, and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 971-989, November.
    5. Camilo Zea, 1999. "Financial Inefficiency And Real Business Cycle In Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2722, Banco de la Republica.
    6. Gonzalo Hernández, 2011. "Terms of Trade and Output Fluctuations in Colombia," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2011-04, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    7. Lavan Mahadeva & Javier Gómez Pineda, 2009. "The international cycle and Colombian monetary policy," Borradores de Economia 5406, Banco de la Republica.
    8. Cardenas, Mauricio & Escobar, Andres, 1998. "Saving determinants in Colombia: 1925-1994," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 5-44, October.

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