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Commodity booms,dutch disease,and real business cycles in a small open economy: The case of coffee in Colombia

  • Rodrigo Suescún M.

    ()

Este documento propone un modelo multisectorial de crecimiento, dinámico y estocástico que integra la literatura de ciclo económico real con la de economías con sectores en bonanza y enfermedad holandesa para analizar fluctuaciones, asignación de recursos y los cambios en precios relativos en una economía (en desarrollo) pequeña y abierta, sujeta a choques en los términos de intercambio. Las predicciones del modelo son consistentes con el comportamiento agregado y sectorial a través del ciclo, típico de estas economías, y racionaliza como un resultado eficiente los síntomas de la enfermedad holandesa (desindustrialización temporal y apreciación de la tasa de cambio real) que son a veces considerados como repuestas subóptimas y como la justificación de la intervención gubernamental en países en desarrollo. Se encuentra además que las políticas de estabilización de precios de los bienes primarios no afectan significativamente el patrón cíclico de las fluctuaciones y que sus beneficios en términos de bienestar son de segundo orden.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 002164.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 30 Jun 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002164
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  1. Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989. "On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices," Papers 145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  2. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1995. "Saving Behavior in Low and Middle-Income Developing Countries; A Comparison," IMF Working Papers 95/3, International Monetary Fund.
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  5. Greenwood, Jeremy & Huffman, Gregory W., 1991. "Tax analysis in a real-business-cycle model : On measuring Harberger triangles and Okun gaps," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 167-190, April.
  6. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
  7. Edwards, Sebastian & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1989. "Disequilibrium and structural adjustment," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 28, pages 1481-1533 Elsevier.
  8. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
  9. Cardia, Emanuela, 1991. "The dynamics of a small open economy in response to monetary, fiscal, and productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 411-434, December.
  10. Kamas, Linda, 1986. "Dutch disease economics and the Colombian export boom," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 1177-1198, September.
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  12. Enrique G. Mendoza, 1992. "The Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks in a Basic Equilibrium Framework," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(4), pages 855-889, December.
  13. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1990. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," NBER Working Papers 3566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
  15. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Tesar, Linda L., 1995. "Evaluating the gains from international risksharing," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 95-143, June.
  17. Prescott, Edward C & Mehra, Rajnish, 1980. "Recursive Competitive Equilibrium: The Case of Homogeneous Households," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1365-79, September.
  18. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
  19. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  20. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-88, September.
  21. W. E. G. Salter, 1959. "Internal And External Balance: The Role Op Price And Expenditure Effects," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(71), pages 226-238, 08.
  22. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
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