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Commodity Booms, Dutch Disease, and Real Business Cycles in a Small Economy: The Case of Coffe in Colombia

  • Rodrigo Suescún M.

This paper proposes a dynamic,stochastic, multisector growth model which integrates the real business cycle literature and booming sector and Dutch Disease economics to analyze fluctuations, resource allocation and relative price changes in small open (developing) economies subject to terms of trade shocks. The model is consistent whith aggregate and sectorial cyclical behavior of this class of economies, and rationalizes as an efficient outcome the symptoms of Dutch Disease (temporary deindustrialization and appreciation of the real exchange rate) which are sometimes judged to be suboptimal responses and as the rationale for government intervention in developing countries. It is also found that commodity price stabilization policies do not significantly affect the cyclical pattern of fluctuations and that their welfare benefits are second orden.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 073.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:073
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  6. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23, January.
  7. Kamas, Linda, 1986. "Dutch disease economics and the Colombian export boom," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 1177-1198, September.
  8. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-85, March.
  9. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
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  12. Cardia, Emanuela, 1991. "The dynamics of a small open economy in response to monetary, fiscal, and productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 411-434, December.
  13. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
  14. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  15. Edwards, Sebastian & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1989. "Disequilibrium and structural adjustment," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 28, pages 1481-1533 Elsevier.
  16. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
  17. Tesar, Linda L., 1995. "Evaluating the gains from international risksharing," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 95-143, June.
  18. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
  19. T. W.Swan, 1960. "Economic Control In A Dependent Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(73), pages 51-66, 03.
  20. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  21. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
  22. Enrique G. Mendoza, 1992. "The Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks in a Basic Equilibrium Framework," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(4), pages 855-889, December.
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