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Un choque del activo externo neto y el ciclo económico Colombiano 1994-2001

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Carlos Esteban Posada Posada

    ()

  • Wilman Gómez

    ()

Abstract

El período 1994-2001 correspondió al de un ciclo de la economía colombiana, especialmente intenso sobretodo en lo que se refiere a la magnitud de la depresión ocurrida entre 1998 y 2001. En el presente documento se describe la construcción y el uso de un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico para evaluar los efectos de un impacto que, presumiblemente, dio origen al auge y a la posterior depresión de la economía: un aumento transitorio, súbito e imprevisto del activo externo neto (gracias, supuestamente, a una caída de la tasa externa de interés). Tal “choque” desató, según los resultados de las simulaciones descritas en este documento, primero, un auge, y después, una desaceleración. Con todo, la depresión observada entre 1998 y 2001 fue de magnitud sustancialmente mayor que la desaceleración predicha por el choque mencionado, así que en 1998 debió ocurrir un choque adicional, esta vez de magnitud negativa, capaz de transformar aquella en una depresión.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 003674.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 30 Apr 2004
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003674
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Keywords: Ciclo económico;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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  1. Miguel Urrutia, 2002. "UNA VISION ALTERNATIVA: La Política Monetaria y Cambiaria en la Ültima Década," Borradores de Economia 207, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Rodrigo Suescún M., 1997. "Commodity booms,dutch disease,and real business cycles in a small open economy: The case of coffee in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002164, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  4. Franz Hamann, 2002. "Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003520, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  5. Carlos Esteban Posada & Wilman Gómez, 2002. "Crecimiento económico y gasto público: un modelo para el caso colombiano," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 20(41-42), pages 5-86, Junio-Dic.
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  9. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Badel Alejandro, 2002. "Choques financieros, precios de activos y recesión en Colombia," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, March.
  11. Franz A. Hamman & Alvaro Riascos, 1998. "Ciclos Económicos en una Economía Pequeña y Abierta- Una Aplicación para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 089, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  12. Martha Misas & Enrique López, 1999. "El producto potencial en Colombia: una estimación bajo var estructural," COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, FEDESARROLLO, September.
  13. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
  14. Cristina Arellano & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit Frictions and "Sudden Stop" in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6499, Inter-American Development Bank.
  15. Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2003. "External Shocks and Debt Accumulation in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 207-239, January.
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Cited by:

  1. Ramiro Rodríguez Revilla, 2011. "Modelos de equilibrio general dinámicos y estocásticos para Colombia 1995-2011," REVISTA ECOS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT, December.

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