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Un choque del activo externo neto y el ciclo econ�mico Colombiano 1994-2001

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  • Carlos Esteban Posada Posada
  • Wilman G�mez

Abstract

El per�odo 1994-2001 correspondi� al de un ciclo de la econom�a colombiana, especialmente intenso sobretodo en lo que se refiere a la magnitud de la depresi�n ocurrida entre 1998 y 2001. En el presente documento se describe la construcci�n y el uso de un modelo de equilibrio general din�mico para evaluar los efectos de un impacto que, presumiblemente, dio origen al auge y a la posterior depresi�n de la econom�a: un aumento transitorio, s�bito e imprevisto del activo externo neto (gracias, supuestamente, a una ca�da de la tasa externa de inter�s). Tal “choque” desat�, seg�n los resultados de las simulaciones descritas en este documento, primero, un auge, y despu�s, una desaceleraci�n. Con todo, la depresi�n observada entre 1998 y 2001 fue de magnitud sustancialmente mayor que la desaceleraci�n predicha por el choque mencionado, as� que en 1998 debi� ocurrir un choque adicional, esta vez de magnitud negativa, capaz de transformar aquella en una depresi�n.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Esteban Posada Posada & Wilman G�mez, 2004. "Un choque del activo externo neto y el ciclo econ�mico Colombiano 1994-2001," Borradores de Economia 3674, Banco de la Republica.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003674
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ramiro Rodríguez Revilla, 2011. "Modelos de equilibrio general dinámicos y estocásticos para Colombia 1995-2011," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ciclo econ�mico;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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