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Fiscal and Monetary Policies and the Cost of Sudden Stops

Author

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  • Michael M. Hutchison

    (Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz)

  • Ilan Noy

    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Lidan Wang

    (Risk Management, HSBC Credit Card Services, California)

Abstract

This article investigates the effects of macroeconomic policy (monetary and fiscal) on output growth during financial crises characterized by a “sudden stop” in net capital inflows in developing and emerging market economies. We investigate 83 sudden stop crises in 77 countries over 1982-2003 using a baseline empirical model to control for the various determinants of output losses during sudden stop crises. Extending the baseline model to account for policies-- contractionary as well as expansionary-- we measure the marginal effects of policy on output losses. Simple descriptive statistics indicate no apparent correlation between the costs of financial crises and the economic policies pursed at the time. Once controlling for various pre-conditions and other factors, however, we find that monetary and fiscal tightening at the time of a sudden stop crisis significantly worsens output losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Noy & Lidan Wang, 2007. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies and the Cost of Sudden Stops," Working Papers 200724, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200724
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output losses; financial crises; sudden stops; fiscal policy; financial policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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