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The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries

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  • Aaron Tornell
  • Frank Westermann

Abstract

With inflation under control in many in middle income countries (MICs), it is now swings in credit, investment and asset prices that affect these countries the most. In this paper we present a framework to analyze both theoretically and empirically how credit market shocks are propagated and amplified in MICs.The strength of the credit channel in our model derives from two key characteristics of MICs: (i)a sharp asymmetry across the tradables (T) sector and the more bank-dependent nontradables (N) sector; and (ii)a significant degree of currency mismatch in the N-sector. This makes movements in the real exchange rate the driving element in the amplification of shocks. The equilibrium imposes unambiguous contemporaneous linkages among key macroeconomic variables and allows us to derive structural VARs. Estimating these VARs using quarterly data for a group of MICs, we find evidence for a strong credit channel, for a balance sheet effect and for asymmetric sectorial responses. Our findings indicate that inflation targeting is not sufficient to guarantee economic stability, as such policy might overlook the development of lending booms and associated sectorial asymmetries.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2003. "The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 832, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_832
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    Cited by:

    1. Leblebicioglu, AslI, 2009. "Financial integration, credit market imperfections and consumption smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 377-393, February.
    2. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Detragiache, Enrica & Rajan, Raghuram, 2008. "The real effect of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 89-112, January.
    3. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2003. "Credit Market Imperfections in Middle Income Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 960, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Bunda, Irina & Ca' Zorzi, Michele, 2010. "Signals from housing and lending booms," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan & Wang, Lidan, 2010. "Fiscal and monetary policies and the cost of sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 973-987, October.
    6. repec:kap:openec:v:29:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11079-017-9471-y is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2006. "Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: Currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 225-248, February.
    8. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," MNB Working Papers 2006/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    9. Brei, Michael & Buzaushina, Almira, 2015. "International financial shocks in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 51-74.
    10. Bahadir, Berrak & Gumus, Inci, 2016. "Credit decomposition and business cycles in emerging market economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 250-262.
    11. World Bank, 2004. "Peru - Microeconomic Constraints to Growth: The Evidence from the Manufacturing Sector," World Bank Other Operational Studies 14426, The World Bank.
    12. Armando Silva, 2011. "Financial Constraints and Exports: Evidence from Portuguese Manufacturing Firms," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 4(3), pages 7-19, December.
    13. Almira Buzaushina & Michael Brei, 2009. "Matching International Financial Shocks in Emerging Markets," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse2_2009, University of Bonn, Germany.
    14. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2006:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Sangyup Choi, 2018. "The Impact of US Financial Uncertainty Shocks on Emerging Market Economies: An International Credit Channel," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 89-118, February.
    16. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Égert, Balázs & MacDonald, Ronald, 2006. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe : gliding on a wind of change," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    17. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 44-87.
    18. Madhavi Bokil, 2005. "Fear of Floating: An optimal discretionary monetary policy analysis," International Finance 0510002, EconWPA.
    19. Massimiliano Pisani, 2011. "Financial Openness and Macroeconomic Instability in Emerging Market Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 501-532, July.
    20. Yong Sarah Zhou, 2008. "Capital Flows and Economic Fluctuations; The Role of Commercial Banks in Transmitting Shocks," IMF Working Papers 08/12, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Kornkarun Cheewatrakoolpong & Somprawin Manprasert, 2012. "Trade concentration and crisis spillover: Case study of transmission of the supprime crisis to Thailand," Working Papers 11212, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    22. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bal??zs ??gert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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