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The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries

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  • Aaron Tornell
  • Frank Westermann

Abstract

Credit market conditions play a key role in propagating shocks in middle income countries (MICs). In particular, shocks to the spread between domestic and international interest rates have a strong effect on GDP, and an even stronger effect on domestic credit. This strong credit channel is associated with a sharp sectorial asymmetry: the output of the bank-dependent nontradables (N) sector reacts more strongly than tradables (T) output. This asymmetry, in turn, is associated with a strong reaction of the real exchange rate --the relative price between N and T goods. We present a model that reconciles these facts and leads to a well specified estimation framework. From the equilibrium we derive structural VARs that allow us to identify shocks to credit market conditions and trace their effects on the economy. We estimate these structural VARs for a group of MICs and find evidence of a strong credit channel. We argue that at the heart of the MIC credit channel are a deep asymmetry in financing opportunities across N and T sectors, and a severe currency mismatch. This makes movements in the real exchange rate the driving element in the amplification of shocks. Finally, we show that the model's key assumptions are consistent with evidence gleaned from both firm level and aggregate data.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries," NBER Working Papers 9355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9355
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    Cited by:

    1. Leblebicioglu, AslI, 2009. "Financial integration, credit market imperfections and consumption smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 377-393, February.
    2. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2003. "Credit Market Imperfections in Middle Income Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 960, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Bunda, Irina & Ca' Zorzi, Michele, 2010. "Signals from housing and lending booms," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan & Wang, Lidan, 2010. "Fiscal and monetary policies and the cost of sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 973-987, October.
    5. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2006. "Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: Currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 225-248, February.
    6. Brei, Michael & Buzaushina, Almira, 2015. "International financial shocks in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 51-74.
    7. Bahadir, Berrak & Gumus, Inci, 2016. "Credit decomposition and business cycles in emerging market economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 250-262.
    8. Almira Buzaushina & Michael Brei, 2009. "Matching International Financial Shocks in Emerging Markets," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse2_2009, University of Bonn, Germany.
    9. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2006:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 44-87.
    11. Massimiliano Pisani, 2011. "Financial Openness and Macroeconomic Instability in Emerging Market Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 501-532, July.
    12. Kornkarun Cheewatrakoolpong & Somprawin Manprasert, 2012. "Trade concentration and crisis spillover: Case study of transmission of the supprime crisis to Thailand," Working Papers 11212, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    13. Armando Silva, 2011. "Financial Constraints and Exports: Evidence from Portuguese Manufacturing Firms," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 4(3), pages 7-19, December.
    14. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Detragiache, Enrica & Rajan, Raghuram, 2008. "The real effect of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 89-112, January.
    15. repec:kap:openec:v:29:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11079-017-9471-y is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," MNB Working Papers 2006/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    17. World Bank, 2004. "Peru - Microeconomic Constraints to Growth: The Evidence from the Manufacturing Sector," World Bank Other Operational Studies 14426, The World Bank.
    18. Sangyup Choi, 2018. "The Impact of US Financial Uncertainty Shocks on Emerging Market Economies: An International Credit Channel," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 89-118, February.
    19. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Égert, Balázs & MacDonald, Ronald, 2006. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe : gliding on a wind of change," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    20. Madhavi Bokil, 2005. "Fear of Floating: An optimal discretionary monetary policy analysis," International Finance 0510002, EconWPA.
    21. Yong Sarah Zhou, 2008. "Capital Flows and Economic Fluctuations; The Role of Commercial Banks in Transmitting Shocks," IMF Working Papers 08/12, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bal??zs ??gert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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