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Structural vulnerability and resilience to currency crisis: Foreign currency debt versus export

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  • Nakatani, Ryota

Abstract

Is there any factor that is not analyzed in the literature but is important for preventing currency crises? I argue that exports are an important factor to prevent currency crises that has not been frequently analyzed in the existing theoretical literature. Using the third generation model of currency crises, I derive a simple and intuitive formula that captures an economy’s structural vulnerability characterized by the elasticity of exports and repayments for foreign currency denominated debt. I graphically show that the possibility of currency crisis equilibrium depends on this structural vulnerability and also analyze how this vulnerability impacts the effectiveness of monetary policy response.

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  • Nakatani, Ryota, 2017. "Structural vulnerability and resilience to currency crisis: Foreign currency debt versus export," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 132-143.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:132-143
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2017.07.009
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    2. Nakatani, Ryota, 2018. "Real and financial shocks, exchange rate regimes and the probability of a currency crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 60-73.
    3. Nakatani, Ryota, 2020. "Macroprudential policy and the probability of a banking crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1169-1186.
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    5. Irem Zeyneloglu, 2018. "Currency The present paper analyzes the role of imports in the occurrence of a currency crisis. For this, it extends a third generation model with balance sheet effects by introducing imports as forei," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 2008-2015.
    6. Ryota Nakatani, 2019. "Firm performance and corporate finance in New Zealand," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(13), pages 1118-1124, July.
    7. Onjewu, Adah-Kole Emmanuel & Olan, Femi & Nyuur, Richard Benon-be-isan & Paul, Salima & Nguyen, Ha Thanh Truc, 2023. "The effect of government support on Bureaucracy, COVID-19 resilience and export intensity: Evidence from North Africa," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    8. Ryota Nakatani, 2017. "The Effects of Productivity Shocks, Financial Shocks, and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 2545-2561, November.
    9. Adah-Kole Emmanuel Onjewu & Sundas Hussain & Mohamed Yacine Haddoud, 2022. "The Interplay of E-commerce, Resilience and Exports in the Context of COVID-19," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 1209-1221, August.
    10. Ryota Nakatani, 2019. "A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands — Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change," IMF Working Papers 2019/186, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ryota Nakatani, 2017. "External Adjustment in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Papua New Guinea," IMF Working Papers 2017/267, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Ryota Nakatani, 2024. "Food companies' productivity dynamics: Exploring the role of intangible assets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 185-226, January.
    13. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2018. "A model of currency crises with heterogeneous market beliefs," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-195.
    14. Ryota Nakatani, 2021. "Fiscal Rules for Natural Disaster- and Climate Change-Prone Small States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, March.
    15. Nakatani, Ryota, 2021. "Total factor productivity enablers in the ICT industry: A cross-country firm-level analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(9).

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