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Trade First and Trade Fast: A Duration Analysis of Recovery from Currency Crisis

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  • Saubhik Deb

    () (Department of Economics)

Abstract

Over the last three decades, durations of recovery of output from contractionary currency crises have shown much variation both within and across countries. Using a dataset comprising of both developing and industrial countries, this paper examines the importance of economic fundamentals, international trade and liberalized capital account in determining the speed of recovery from such crises. We found that poor macroeconomic fundamentals and capital account liberalization have no significant effect on duration of recovery. However, all trade related variables were found to be significant. Our results indicate the preeminence of export led recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Saubhik Deb, 2006. "Trade First and Trade Fast: A Duration Analysis of Recovery from Currency Crisis," Departmental Working Papers 200607, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:200607
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    File URL: http://www.sas.rutgers.edu/virtual/snde/wp/2006-07.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    2. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1999. "Lessons from the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 709-723, August.
    3. Aaron Tornell, 1999. "Common Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1868, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    4. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    5. Harding, Don, 1997. "The Definition, Dating and Duration of Cycles," MPRA Paper 3357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Radelet Steven & Sachs Jeffrey & Lee Jong-Wha, 2001. "The Determinants and Prospects of Economic Growth in Asia," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 1-29.
    7. Ratna Sahay & Deepak Mishra & Poonam Gupta, 2003. "Output Response to Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/230, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Yung Chul Park & Jong-Wha Lee, 2003. "Recovery and Sustainability in East Asia," NBER Chapters,in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 275-320 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roland Craigwell & Troy Lorde & Winston Moore, 2013. "Fiscal policy and the duration of financial crises," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 793-801, February.
    2. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:132-143 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ryota Nakatani, 2014. "The Effects of Financial and Real Shocks, Structural Vulnerability and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates from the Perspective of Currency Crises Models," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 043, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency Crisis; Output Recovery; Duration Analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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