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Trade First and Trade Fast: A Duration Analysis of Recovery from Currency Crisis

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  • Saubhik Deb

    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

Over the last three decades, durations of recovery of output from contractionary currency crises have shown much variation both within and across countries. Using a dataset comprising of both developing and industrial countries, this paper examines the importance of economic fundamentals, international trade and liberalized capital account in determining the speed of recovery from such crises. We found that poor macroeconomic fundamentals and capital account liberalization have no significant effect on duration of recovery. However, all trade related variables were found to be significant. Our results indicate the preeminence of export led recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Saubhik Deb, 2006. "Trade First and Trade Fast: A Duration Analysis of Recovery from Currency Crisis," Departmental Working Papers 200607, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:200607
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ryota Nakatani, 2017. "The Effects of Productivity Shocks, Financial Shocks, and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 2545-2561, November.
    3. Eichengreen, Barry & Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2021. "The shape of recovery: Implications of past experience for the duration of the COVID-19 recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Roland Craigwell & Troy Lorde & Winston Moore, 2013. "Fiscal policy and the duration of financial crises," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 793-801, February.
    5. Nakatani, Ryota, 2017. "Structural vulnerability and resilience to currency crisis: Foreign currency debt versus export," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 132-143.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency Crisis; Output Recovery; Duration Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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