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Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti
  • Assaf Razin

Abstract

The paper studies determinants and consequences of sharp reductions in current account imbalances (reversals) in low- and middle-income countries. It poses two questions: what triggers reversals, and what factors explain how costly reversals are? It finds that both domestic variables, such as the current account balance, openness to trade, and the level of reserves, and external variables, such as terms of trade shocks, U.S. real interest rates, and growth in industrial countries, seem to play important roles in explaining reversals in current account imbalances. It also finds some evidence that countries with a less appreciated real exchange rate, higher investment, and more openness before the reversal tend to grow faster after a reversal occurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 1997/168, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1997/168
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 1349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    5. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
    6. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    7. Assaf Razin & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," IMF Working Papers 1996/110, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; current account deficit; deficit; GDP; Current account deficits; current account sustainability; capital flows; persistent current account imbalance; current account reversal; investment share; GDP ratio; terms of trade shock; rate of growth; balance-of-payments crisis; Current account imbalances; Current account; Terms of trade; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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